Do you think a filly will ever win the Triple Crown

I figured to pass time while we wait on Z16 I would start a discussion. Do you think a filly will ever win the Triple Crown? Do you think any filly had a chance if so who? ......ready go
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Comments

  • Paniolo_GalPaniolo_Gal Member
    edited March 2016
    The filly who came closest to winning the Triple Crown in the past was Genuine Risk (1977f) who took the 1980 Kentucky Derby but came in 2nd in the controversial "mugging" by the jockey of Codex in the Preakness. In the Belmont, Genuine Risk did get redemption by beating Codex (who didn't even hit the boards)...but unfortunately Genuine Risk came in 2nd behind Temperence Hill in this third leg.

    That being said...currently, undefeated Songbird (6:6-0-0) would be my guess for a filly to have a chance...that is, if the owner and trainer are willing to let her run against the boys. If not...Then perhaps undefeated Cathryn Sophia (4:4-0-0) would be another possibility...but I'm only a novice...not really into back track stories when it comes to odds, past performances, timeforms, etc. in Horseracing.

    But in my humble, novice opinion...if it took 37 years to get another Triple Crown winner for the colts, a filly winning all 3 TC races is very unlikely...Let alone getting over the first hurdle of convincing the current North American racing mindset to openly allow the fillies to run against the boys. The current "points system" may further hamper the possibility as well. idk
  • I really hope it happens someday. I have no doubt in my mind that Ruffian was fully capable of pulling it off. I think Songbird would absolutely have a good shot at it. I love Cathryn Sophia to pieces, but I'm still not sure how distance-oriented her pedigree is.

    I do think it's less likely to happen with the current points system in place though. Maybe if the filly with the most points on the Oaks trail could enter the Kentucky Derby? Or if any filly with 150+ points could enter? I don't really know what the best solution would be, but the vast majority of owners don't want to race their fillies against the colts this early in the year.
  • I think Songbird might be capable of it. However, she wasn't even an early nomination to the TC races, so it's pretty clear that at this point, her connections have no plans to race her in any of the races.
  • carolinarkansascarolinarkansas hot springs, arkansasMember
    I know they are not going to the derby.....but if she out performs the boys on derby week...I don't think the Preakness is out of the question
  • Possibly, if they're willing to supplement her. Plans change.
  • Yeah I know they're not going to the Derby at this point =/ I still think she'd have a good shot at the Triple Crown if she was entered though. I'm not expecting to see her race against the colts until at least this summer.
  • No.
  • That was a very thoughtful, articulate addition to this thread @whoodler. Thank you for sharing.
  • Most definitely a possibility. Genuine Risk won Derby and placed in other two. Do we know how many fillies have actually ran in all three legs? Ruffian, no doubt in my mind. The girl didn't know how to lose. Soingbird, possible if given the chance. There's been other fillies gong to soon that would of made my possibilities list...... Landaluce
  • I think Songbird might be capable of it. However, she wasn't even an early nomination to the TC races, so it's pretty clear that at this point, her connections have no plans to race her in any of the races.
    I agree. Not since Ruffian has any filly had the talent, and also so clearly stood head and shoulders above the colts in her crop.

    But that said, no M'dO has ever won at the Belmont distance or even the Kentucky Derby distance of 10 furlongs, so that would be a big question hanging over her, the distance + the colts.

    I've accepted Porter's decision not to send her in the classics. Maybe, so long as she continues to stay healthy and improve, we'll get to see her in the Breeder's Cup Classic or even better, get to see her race as a 4 year old.

  • That was a very thoughtful, articulate addition to this thread @whoodler. Thank you for sharing.
    You are most welcome.

  • EliRoseEliRose Member
    edited March 2016
    FWIW, watch Polar River this weekend. A win in the UAE Derby will earn her immediate berth into the KY Derby.

    Connections don't want to run her against Songbird . . . Never said anything about Mohaymen.
  • CNielzCNielz Member
    Does anyone think Zenyatta could have done it if she'd been allowed to run in them?
  • KMMKMM Member
    No. She didn't run until late in her 3 year old year, because she wasn't ready, at least according to John Sherriffs.
  • CNielzCNielz Member
    I know she started to old. I'm asking if she had been ready young enough
  • KMMKMM Member
    Not according to John; she was immature and still growing.
  • shirleeshirlee Member
    With the point system the way it is, I think it would be very difficult for a filly to get into the Derby. I am sure there have been and will be those who are talented enough to win the TC.
  • CNielzCNielz Member
    If she had been mature enough young enough. Could Zenyatta have done it at her best, if her best had been at a young enough age.
  • RachelRachel Member
    They have the filly TC. Which is more spaced out
  • LionessLioness Member
    Sadly, I don't think we'll ever see a filly Triple Crown winner, not with the point system. I don't think the Triple Tiara is well-developed. I'm not even sure what the races are anymore, as they seem to switch them around.
  • If the fillies want to run in the TC races... if their PEOPLE want them to run in the TC races... they have to compete against the colts from the git-go. This year Rayya had enough points for the Oaks and enough Derby points to get in that as well. It is not the points system stopping the girls. It is the mindset in this country that the fillies are not big enough/not strong enough/ just plain not enough. Other countries race the two genders together all the time.
  • ZenyenZenyen Member
    CNielz said:

    If she had been mature enough young enough. Could Zenyatta have done it at her best, if her best had been at a young enough age.

    I think she could have captured the Kentucky Derby.

    The Preakness would have been the test for her. Pimlico's short stretch, combined with the shorter distance of the race would have not favored her deep, one run closing style. She'd have either had to start running on the turn, which wasn't her style, or risk running out of real estate.

    In the Belmont oval would have favored her running style but I don't think she would have liked the track and she would have HATED the holding barn situation.

    So to answer your question, given what we did see of her running out of SoCal I think the Pimlico track and the Belmont holding barn would have been her Achilles heel in a Triple Crown bid.
  • CNielzCNielz Member
    I also totally believe she could have won the Kentucky Derby! I wish she had had the chance. Even with all the greatness we saw from her, it was only a portion of what she could have done.
  • CNielzCNielz Member
    And what a Kentucky Derby win it would have been with her flying up from the back to win it. I love her.
  • LionessLioness Member
    whoodler said:

    If the fillies want to run in the TC races... if their PEOPLE want them to run in the TC races... they have to compete against the colts from the git-go. This year Rayya had enough points for the Oaks and enough Derby points to get in that as well. It is not the points system stopping the girls. It is the mindset in this country that the fillies are not big enough/not strong enough/ just plain not enough. Other countries race the two genders together all the time.

    I still think part of it is the point system, coupled with a money issue, not so much a mindset here. They don't want to run against the colts from the get-go; many trainers with fillies have echoed this sentiment over the years, wanting to stick to filly-only prep races early on in their three-year-old season. I think that's fair for a young filly and frankly, they have no real incentive to take on the boys. Filly-restricted races are well-funded. Is there any real reason to go against the boys when you could have an easier, more restricted race and still make a killing? Nope.
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