Weekly Handicapping Contest

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  • WezzieWezzie Member
    Race 1 -- Santa Anita: # 5 Poco Sueno (bred to be a star, dam is a turf winner)
    Race 5 -- Belmont: # # Dreams Are Pazible (coming hard in only start, Dams sire siring top notch turf horses, mom won on the all weather)
    Race 2 -- Gulfstream: #6 Cometin (breeding indicates both a proclivity for turf and for forward juveniles)
  • tincuptincup Member
    Babies
    Cash first
    Owner
    Trainer
    Sire/ dame sire
    Distance and surface
    Experience
    Need
    Never jockey
  • KMMKMM Member
    Thanks tincup, for your insight. K
  • tincuptincup Member
    KMM said:

    Thanks tincup, for your insight. K

    In the race contest scenario winning isn't the key.
    Show betting is an art.
    Play the most likely horse at the best price.
    I haven't looked at the races yet, but a show contest with three races is a true test of betting, not handicapping.
    Don't get stuck on best.
    Show betting also is tied to tote.
    Pools
    You bet against people, not horses.
    Playing against the crowd, not with them.
  • tincup said:


    In the race contest scenario winning isn't the key.
    Show betting is an art.
    Play the most likely horse at the best price.

    This is exactly right. Thank you for pointing that out, @tincup! Again, the payout is going to be exactly the same whether your horse wins or comes in third, so all you want is the horse with the longest odds that you think can come in at least 3rd.
  • Thank you, tincup and Jae for the added tips. I am so new at this, I'll stay with my selected horses even though they are unlikely to make me money. Very educational game, glad this baby bettor can start out in a safe place with fake money lol. Wish I had had this before I went to dog races and only made a very small amount of money haha. Thanks, Jae for your work on this. :)
  • Well then, if it is about the odds, the "trick" would be not betting until the last possible moment.
  • KMMKMM Member
    What is tote? Don't know jargon.
  • KMM said:

    What is tote? Don't know jargon.

    The tote board is the board at a racetrack where they display the live odds. Does that help?
  • KMMKMM Member
    Yep. I will have to play without that advantage.
  • It's after 9 o'clock and I've got to get some sleep, probably won't be up at post times to check odds, so here goes...


    SA 1 - Grayvitos. (color, dam side)
    Bel 5 - Frosty Wolf (name, Frost Giant)
    GP2 - Yeehaw (name, jockey)
  • I didn't think I'd need to say this, but colors and names don't count as reasons. We're all trying to get better at handicapping here, not just throw a dart and hope we get lucky. If you would like to do that, you are more than welcome to do that over on the Horse Players (A Betting Game) thread, but not here.

    Santa Anita Race 1 - Data Central

    Despite the slow times, I like how he's been working in the mornings. Doesn't look like he's ever been asked for his best and he looks like he'll love the mile distance. I also love his breeding for a mile on turf (by Data Link out of an El Prado mare, who has four winners from four starters and three winners on turf), and I'm a big fan of Keith Desormeaux as a trainer. I'm not sure if he'll win because Keith doesn't typically have them fully cranked for their first race, but I like the horse enough that I think he'll hit the board.

    Belmont Race 5 - Quietly Quick

    Christoph Clemente is a great turf trainer and I really like this horse's breeding for the turf (by Mizzen Mast out of a Langfuhr mare). The rail and other inside posts are winning at a solid rate at Belmont for this distance. She also had a great 4f workout at Belmont last week. I like Goodbye Brockley here too, but I'm trying to go with the horse with the longer odds.

    Gulfstream Race 2 - Seattle Treasure

    He earned a great speed figure for his first career start (82 Brisnet). The trainer/jockey combination has been in the money 77% of the time together, and the trainer has great win percentages for both turf races and the horse's second career start. There are some other horses I like in this field as well, but I'm going for a bit more of a price here.

    Historically I'm a little weak with 2yo maidens, so we'll see how this weekend goes xD
  • I tend to ignore horses without a race if there are other horses who have at least one race, unless those have all run very poorly.

    SA Race 1 #4 Stay Glad Moving from
    dirt to turf for 3rd start, as well as from sprint to route. Looking for a rebound from poor 2nd start.

    Belmont Race 5 #10 Goodbye Brockley Improved in 2nd race, expecting further improvement with experience.

    GP Race 3 #7 Yeehaw Another one racing for a 3rd time. Expect experience to pay off.
  • tincuptincup Member
    Watching the pools.
    Funny stuff already.
    Yeehaw has more in the show pool then the short priced channel cat.
  • tincuptincup Member
    Gulf stream race two
    Calumet farm
    Tyler coming off a win in the first
    Getting value with a 3/1 ml now at 6/1 and under bet in the show pool.

    Gp 2
    #8 Bon Raison...
  • I'm actually going to switch to Bon Raison too. I was expecting him to be a much shorter price, which is why I didn't go with him. Gaffalione and Pletcher have been a lethal combination at Gulfstream Park lately and I really like his breeding (AP Indy line and the Deputy Minister lines).
  • Damnit. Should have stuck with my gut. xD
  • tincuptincup Member
    That didn't work
    Lol...
    Guess the locals had that right.
  • tincuptincup Member
    The positive result is that the show pools paid poorly.
    Bad for me I wasn't watching the exacta pool
    That 7/2 over the easy peesy 1/1 channel cat paid 27 bucks...
    Dang gina...I'm some miffed
  • tincuptincup Member

    Damnit. Should have stuck with my gut. xD

    Nah...it was a good try....
    You'll need about 9 bucks to win....plenty of racing left.
  • KMMKMM Member
    edited July 2017
    SA1; Greyvitos; pedigree, plus dam is Snow Top Mountain.
    Bel 5-- Champagne Papi: pedigree, trainer,jockey.
    GP2: Don's Beach-- shot in dark. Pedigree, last workout.
  • SA 1 - #9 Kylemore: I like the sire/dam family, first race, no Lasix, Talamo/Harty

    Bel 5 - #6 Spa Angel: First race, FTL, decent improving works, dam sire Freud, Maragh

  • jaefeatheredjaefeathered Member
    edited July 2017
    Looks like my horse scratched at Belmont, so I'll go with Goodbye Brockley. I really like Irad Ortiz at Belmont, so that's mostly why I'm playing him. Plus he's got the experience edge on this field and has nice speed figures.
  • whoodlerwhoodler Member
    edited July 2017

    Damnit. Should have stuck with my gut. xD

    >

    Not color
    Not name

    Gut, hell yes

    I know where to get the name. I know where to get the color. Everyone has a gut.
    No info on where to get all these other handicapping tools except for equibase... if you pay. Great learning experience.
  • Except for the whole part where I very clearly listed my reasons in my original post. Go back to your own betting thread. I won't have players here that are rude to me.

    To everyone else, please ignore Whoodler when she posts here in the future.
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