Weekly Handicapping Contest

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  • Oy vay... the idea is to pick the 3rd place horse, right?
    Maybe I'm wrong but I think the horse I picked for that Gulfstream race because I liked his name (and jockey) came in... third.
    Sorry for being so rude.
  • jaefeatheredjaefeathered Member
    edited July 2017
    Gulfstream Race 2 -
    Seattle Treasure - $2.60
    Channel Cat - $2.10 (carolinarkansas)
    Yeehaw - $2.40 (KenHamilton1955)

    Belmont Race 5 -
    Goodbye Brockley - $2.30 (KenHamilton1955, jaefeathered)
    Blue Atlas - $2.60 (sarinne)
    Dreams are Pazible - $2.60 (Wezzie)

    Santa Anita Race 1 -
    Armour Plate - $2.40
    My Boy Jack - $3.40
    Kazan - $2.40 (carolinarkansas)

    --------------------

    Winners:
    1 - KenHamilton1955 - $4.70
    2 - carolinarkansas - $4.50
    3 - sarinne & Wezzie - $2.60

    jaefeathered - $2.30
    KMM - $0

    --------------------

    Congratulations to the winners! Ken, you actually get to pick the theme for next week and one of the races that suits the theme. Carol, Sarinne and Wezzie (since they both tied for third) will choose one race each that suits the theme.

    If you guys have any questions about this, just shoot me a message. Obviously you won't be able to choose races until later in the week once cards have been drawn for next weekend.

    Also if you have suggestions for better "prizes" I'm open to them. I'm not tied to this haha. Bragging rights works too if you don't mind which races we pick.
  • KMMKMM Member
    So I have no clue how I scored, jae.
  • Thanks. I was hosting my bluegrass radio show while handicapping this morning, so maybe I should be listening to bluegrass music when handicapping from now on. LOL
  • Sorry, you didn't hit the board in any of the races, KMM. I'll modify my post so you know in the future.
  • KMMKMM Member
    edited July 2017
    I bet on my boy Jack, I think. Will have to go back and look. I guess I did not.
  • KMMKMM Member
    And I did not look at changing bet pools. Still above my head.
  • KMM said:

    And I did not look at changing bet pools. Still above my head.

    It's okay, I didn't look at the show pools either haha. I just went with the longest win odds I was comfortable with and guessed that the show pools would be roughly similar.
  • KMMKMM Member
    Thanks jae for updates.
  • KMMKMM Member
    I am the person that did not do their homework here. My faut pas.
  • What exactly are you all most interested in getting out of this? Any particular types of bets that you're confused about or that you want more practice with? I figure we can talk through any questions you guys have while we're waiting for race entries later this week.
  • WezzieWezzie Member
    Sorry @jaefeather! I don't even know enough to ask questions. I guess I wold ask about the betting you see when watching TVG. Like I have $50 so I spread it so...
  • I think you're talking about the Pick 4s and Pick 5s? I've tried them a few times on paper and had a lot of fun with it. Basically the goal is to pick the winner of every race in the sequence. Each ticket is usually 50 cents or something like that, so you can pick multiple possible winners for each race and still keep the total ticket price low.

    For example, say we have a Pick 3. In Race 1, Arrogate is running against a bunch of claiming horses for some reason, so you can "single" him in that race. In Race 2, Songbird hooks up with Beholder and Stellar Wind. You might like one of these horses a little bit more than the others, but none of the other horses in the field have much of a chance in your mind, so you put all three on your ticket. In Race 3, there are a bunch of 3yo colts entered, who have been very inconsistent so you try to put as many on your ticket as you can to try to get the winner.

    Race 1: Arrogate
    Race 2: Songbird / Beholder / Stellar Wind
    Race 3: ALL (includes Classic Empire, Tapwrit, Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry, McCraken, Girvin, Gunnevera, and Cloud Computing)

    So you would have a winning ticket if Arrogate, Stellar Wind, and Girvin win. But if Arrogate wins in Race 1 and Race 2 is upset by Forever Unbridled, then you don't win any money.

    It's pretty simple in theory, but it's hard to master in reality. There are calculators out there to help you determine how much your ticket would cost, so I'll be sure to link to that if we do something like this.
  • I think I would like to learn more about how to play Pick 3, etc, but i have no idea how you would compute the winnings for our purposes? Would that be hard? I also would like to learn how to bet like Wezzie mentioned.
  • If we did a Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequence and nobody won, I'd probably have to figure out who came the closest to hitting it. So if one person gets two winners and everyone else only has one, that first person would win. If nobody gets a winner, but several people get 2nds or 3rds, I could determine who did the best overall. If there were any ties based on placings, I would probably use winning margins as the tie breakers.

    Might be a little more complicated, but I'll absolutely make it work if that's what you all are interested in.
  • Does sound super complicated, Jae, sorry. That's just one thing I've always been curious about. :)
  • Well you won't have to worry about figuring out who the winners are haha. That job falls to me xD Do you think you understand how Pick 3s and Pick 4s work now, or are you still a little confused?
  • Well you won't have to worry about figuring out who the winners are haha. That job falls to me xD Do you think you understand how Pick 3s and Pick 4s work now, or are you still a little confused?

    Well I understand how they work............what I don't understand is how to "handicap" them, and I thought this game was kind of a teaching experiment too. That's kind of what I was after, if it makes sense. lol But I understand it would be hard for you to determine winners. :)
  • KMMKMM Member
    What about an exacta box?
  • jaefeatheredjaefeathered Member
    edited July 2017
    sarinne said:

    Well I understand how they work............what I don't understand is how to "handicap" them, and I thought this game was kind of a teaching experiment too. That's kind of what I was after, if it makes sense. lol But I understand it would be hard for you to determine winners. :)

    Well the goal is to pick the winners of each race, so you would handicap each race like you normally would. But if you like five different horses in one race, you can put them all on your ticket instead of just picking one.

    It's a bit like the lottery in that the more people that play, the more money you can win. But if several people have the same ticket, then the total pool of money gets divided between them (same as the lottery). There's also a higher chance that more people will hit the Pick 4 if only favorites win, so ideally your winning ticket would have at least a longshot or two so that you end up with a higher payout. Of course, that's with real money, not with play money.

    Does that make sense?

    And @KMM - do you want to know what an exacta box is, or do you want to try that as a theme at some point?
  • KMMKMM Member
    Both. I think that you play 123 in different races in different mixes. 6 box?
  • Yes, that makes sense @jaefeathered thank you. It'd be something I'd like to try one week if someone would consider it, just to see how it works, if you find a way to adjust it to score for this contest. :)
  • So basically for an exacta box, you're making several exacta bets. With an exacta, you're picking the first and second place finishers in order. To go back to my previous example, say that you like Stellar Wind, Beholder, and Songbird in a race and you're sure that two of them are going to finish 1-2 but you want to cover your bases. An exacta box with those three horses would contain the following exacta bets:

    1 - Stellar Wind / Beholder (therefore, Stellar Wind must win, and Beholder must finish 2nd)
    2 - Stellar Wind / Songbird
    3 - Beholder / Stellar Wind
    4 - Beholder / Songbird
    5 - Songbird / Stellar Wind
    6 - Songbird / Beholder

    So it's really six different bets, but it's a lot easier to call it an "exacta box." The racetracks and betting websites make it easy for you to place these six different bets by saying that you want an exacta box with Stellar Wind, Beholder, and Songbird.

    Does that help?
  • KMMKMM Member
    Yes. That might be an easier first try. Do the pools make a difference? Where would we look?
  • KMMKMM Member
    edited July 2017
    This seems like an easy one for me to get to start. K you guys can mix it up from there, but do it incrementally, at least for me, maybe others. Maybe KenH wants something more sophisticated? Maybe at least one race for Exacta box?
    Thanks for teaching jae; new to me and looking stuff up.
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