Weekly Handicapping Contest

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  • The pools do make a difference. I'm honestly not used to betting while looking at the non-win pools, so I'll have to find the best place for us to do that. Maybe @tincup knows?
  • tincuptincup Member
    I've had a tvg account for so long, I don't go anywhere else.
    I did just try a non log in look at the full screen browse at tvg and was able to see live pools of w/p/s and the exacta pools at any track and race...
    Does someone want to confirm if they are able....
    It would help me.
  • KMMKMM Member
    Where would I go on tvg? Not sure how to look up or what I am looking for.
  • KMMKMM Member
    OK, it looks like you have access to pools for immediate races, but I don't know exactly what to make of them. I could see info without joining.
  • For this week's contest theme, let's go with 1 mile races on turf. For the race I get to choose, I pick:

    Race 4 - Belmont: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/BEL070817USA4-EQB.html
  • KMMKMM Member
    OK, tincup, how does this play this weekend? Total, total neophyte. K
  • KMMKMM Member
    Ken, can you offer any strategies or insights? You are new here, and seem to know your stuff?
  • carolinarkansascarolinarkansas hot springs, arkansasMember
    i think i am next....i will stay at Belmont..
    with Race #11 Maiden Claiming 1mile on turf
  • KMM Sure will. I am planning to do some handicapping later today.
  • For Saturday's race 4 at Belmont, here is how I see it(btw, I use STATS Race Lens for handicapping):

    First the horses I do not consider contenders:

    #2 Had a bad trip in first race for 2017 when clipped from behind but has also lost previously to Ten Penny Princess and Kitty Maddnes at 8f.

    #3 Has not run since last October and I tend to stay away from horses after a long layoff unless they are really good, e.g., Songbird.

    #5 Won first race at 6f so is stretching out. Didn't run all that great of a speed figure and is stepping way up in class.

    #6 Ran poorly in last race and has lost to Desert Duchess twice and also to Ten Penny Princess at 8.5f.

    #7 Hasn't run a good race in any of three starts in 2017.

    #8 Hasn't run a speed figure near where will probably be necessary on Saturday since last August.


    My contenders in order of preference:

    #4 Last 2 races have been good at 8f and 8.5f and has been in the money in 4 of 5 turf races at Belmont.

    #1 Has won two 8f turf races in 2017 but late pace is slowest of the contenders and with so many turf races being a cavalry charge down the stretch I put a lot of stock in the late pace.

    #1A Has best late pace figure but has been dropping in overall speed figure since winning in February.

    #10 Lost to Believe Indeed and Desert Duchess in last race, but could surprise in second race after a six month layoff.

    #9 Like this horse a lot as last two turf races have been really good. However, is coming off a two month layoff and when doing so previously from 11/16-2/17 did not shine in first race back.


    Anyway, that's how I see it.
  • WezzieWezzie Member
    Arlington- Race 7 $35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming About 1 Mile Turf
  • Sorry to be so late in posting my race, has been a long painful day.

    Woodbine, Race 10, Maiden Optional Claiming one mile on turf on Saturday.
  • KMMKMM Member
    Thanks Ken. Your analysis seems logical to me.
  • jaefeatheredjaefeathered Member
    edited July 2017
    Handicapping Contest Races for July 8th, 2017:

    Race 4 (3:23 PM EST) - Belmont: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/BEL070817USA-EQB.html#RACE4
    Race 7 (5:38 PM EST) - Arlington: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/AP070817USA-EQB.html#RACE7
    Race 10 (5:56 PM EST) - Woodbine: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/WO070817CAN-EQB.html#RACE10
    Race 11 (7:23 PM EST) - Belmont: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/BEL070817USA-EQB.html#RACE11
  • WezzieWezzie Member
    Race 4- #9 Romantic Music (Mom won on the turf, she shows speed in the morning, dad is a favorite of mine)
    Race 7- # 4 Charming Clare ( Like her last race, was coming hard at the end still finished in the money after blowing the turn, not in for a tag)
    Race 10- Carolina Grace ( finished well in only start, not in for a tag)
    Race 11- #11 They Shot Sonny (Pedigree indicates turf, like his jockey/trainer combo, 1st time starter)
  • carolinarkansascarolinarkansas hot springs, arkansasMember
    Belmont 4...#1 Dessert Duchess...love this jockey on turf
    Arlington 7...#1 Beach Flower...this jockey recently got 1000th win
    Woodbine 10...#2 I Got Silent Ego...soft spot for SS progeny, jockey
    Belmont 11...#1 California Swing....Big D, top jockey
  • KMMKMM Member
    When are these selections due?
  • Same as last time. As long as you get your picks in before they leave the gate, it's fine.
  • KMMKMM Member
    edited July 2017
    Race 4 Belmont: Desert Duchess
    Race 7 Arlington: Belle Hill
  • Race 4 Belmont: Lillie's Answer
    Race 7 Arlington: Belle Hill
    Race 10 Woodbine: White Moon
    Race 11 Belmont: Harlan's Hunch

    Are we still supposed to be listing reasons for our selections?
  • jaefeatheredjaefeathered Member
    edited July 2017
    Yes, please continue to list reasons for your selections (should be more than one, and color/name/etc. doesn't count). The whole point of this game is that we're trying to improve our picks over time, so it's good to remember why you chose a horse before the gates open. It's also helpful for other players to see your reasoning if you end up picking the winner.
  • Worth noting in Race 4 at Belmont is that there is a coupled entry (#1 Desert Duchess and #1A Lillie's Answer). In this case, the two horses are a coupled entry because they have both the same owner and the same trainer. This is done to protect the bettors, as the trainer and owner may have a strategy for their horses that benefits one horse at the expense of the other. For example, one of the horses could be used as a rabbit for the other.

    For betting purposes, these two horses are treated as one. When you place a bet on the "#1 horse" in this race, you are effectively betting that one of these two horses will finish at least third in the race. Since there are multiple horses involved (and therefore a better chance of one of them getting third), the odds are much shorter.
  • Belmont 4: #10 Romantic Music - Jockey, good breeze 6/25.
    Arlington 7: #5 Belle Hill - 50% wins, Sky Mesa/Sealy Hill/Point Given, decent works.
    Woodbine 10: #7 Carolina Grace - second start, good works, jockey.
    Belmont 11: #9 Big Exchange - FL bred, ???? otherwise
  • Race 4 - Belmont: Desert Duchess / Lillie's Answer (COUPLED ENTRY)

    I absolutely love Mike Maker as a turf trainer, and he's got Javier Castellano and Jose Ortiz on these fillies. For Desert Duchess in particular, she's never been worse than third in her most recent five starts. Maker also has a 30% win rate (59% in the money) with horses in their second race after he's claimed them. I also love the pedigree with Hard Spun on top and Dynaformer on the bottom. For Lillie's Answer, she was 3rd by just a length in a stakes race. Kitten's Joy has a fantastic record as a turf stallion and I'm a huge fan of Empire Maker in a horse's pedigree.

    Race 7 - Arlington: Daddy's Boo

    The trainer/jockey win percentages with this horse are pretty ridiculous. Both the jockey, Valdivia, AND the trainer, Larry Rivelli, have won 35% of the time at this meet. When teaming up, they win 42% of the time and are in the money 72% of the time. At Arlington Park, this horse has won two of three races and has won four out of five attempts at this distance. Daddy's Boo has won 12 of 20 career starts (60% win percentage), and has been in the money 14 of 20 times (70% on the board finishes). Those kinds of statistics are extremely hard to pick against.

    Race 10 - Woodbine: White Moon

    Boy this was a tough race to handicap. I ended up going with White Moon because she's dropping in class and overall has been racing against the toughest company. She's also got one of the highest speed figures in the race, and her trainer has been winning with 21% of his turf horses.

    Race 11 - Belmont: Markitoff

    Markitoff is dropping in class today big time. He was previously in a $90k MSW. Like I said earlier, I'm a big fan of Mike Maker as a turf trainer, and he's also got Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle who earned Jockey of the Meet honors down at Gulfstream recently. This horse has earned 90 Brisenet figures twice and he's been third twice in four career starts. I also love that his damsire is Ghostzapper.
  • lizzielizzie Member
    Belmont 4 - #6 Believe Indeed

    I believe the 1 or 1a will win. I'm trying to catch a little bit of a price. I like an Indeed filly on the grass. Bruce Levine is a great grass trainer and Manuel Franco is on fire.

    Arlington 7 - #5

    Sky Mesa is one of my favorite sires. I'm not familiar with the trainer, but love Jimmy Graham riding! Could come in 3rd at a price.

    Woodbine 10 - #6 Boo

    Ghostzapper is my favorite sire!!! Great trainer/jockey combo.

    Belmont 11 - #8 Harlan's Hunch

    Love Harland's Holiday w/ dam sire English Channel. The Asmussen/Ortiz Jr combo should play out nicely.


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