Weekly Handicapping Contest

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  • sarinnesarinne Member
    It was a fun way to celebrate for sure, thanks for letting us do it! :)
  • sarinnesarinne Member
    Old Forester. With scratch of the 1, please replace with 10 in my exacta box.

    Wild day in Louisville! I'm impaired in Colorado, lol so i hope above makes sense. Trying my best to follow. Think I'm bombing so far haha
  • 1 - @sarinne -
    $20 to Place on Beach Patrol ($36 total)
    $5 Trifecta Box for KD ($707 total winnings)
    $25 to Place and $50 to Show on Justify ($185 total)
    Won $928 total

    2 - @jaefeathered -
    $25 to Place and Show on On Leave ($115 total)
    $30 to Show on Warrior's Club ($102 total)
    $30 to Show on Awesome Slew ($48 total)
    $25 each to Place and Show on Beach Patrol ($80 total)
    $25 to Show on Synchrony ($42.50 total)
    Won $70.70 for $0.50 Trifecta in the Kentucky Derby
    $35 to WPS on Justify ($318.50)
    Won $776.70 total

    3 - @KenHamilton1955 -
    $30 each to Place and Show on On Leave (won $138 total)
    $30 to Show on Warrior's Club ($102 total)
    $30 each to Place and Show on Beach Patrol ($96 total)
    $50 to Show on Audible ($145 total)
    $40 each to Place and Show on Justify ($208 total)
    Won $689 total

    4 - @KMM -
    Won $15 to Show on Dream Awhile ($27 total)
    Won $25 to Place and $10 to Show on Warrior's Club ($231.50 total)
    Won $15 to Win, $20 to Place, and $15 to Show on Limousine Liberal ($214.50 total)
    Won $25 to Show on Synchrony ($42.50 total)
    Won $20 to Place and $10 to Show on Beach Patrol ($50 total)
    Won $565.50

    Sorry about the delay on this, guys! I had a ton of fun with this theme this past weekend, and it sounds like a lot of you guys did as well. I believe I got the math correct for everything, but please feel more than free to double check your winnings. I was too lazy to actually do the proper format and get all of the payouts, so I hope you'll forgive me this time. You can find all of the stakes payouts here on DRF: http://www.drf.com/spro/stakes-results

    Congratulations to the other winners though! @sarinne can choose the theme and a race for next week, and then I and @KenHamilton1955 will make our race picks after that.
  • sarinnesarinne Member
    Well none of us made our $1000 back, but that was a blast!!!! Thank you Jae for figuring all that out! :) Maybe we could try another weekend of choosing our own bets again? Of course with a much smaller bankroll, and you can set that Jae, since I have no idea what is reasonable for three races, maybe $300 (like the WPS game)? I'll get back to you guys with a race selection. :)
  • Congrats to the winners! If only I had bet on Funny Duck. =)
  • sarinnesarinne Member

    Congrats to the winners! If only I had bet on Funny Duck. =)

    hahaha no joke! Congrats to everyone else too! It was fun to go out of my comfort zone this week!
  • sarinnesarinne Member
    My race pick is the Peter Pan.
  • I'll go with the greatest of all time, Man O' War. =)
  • Well, I’ll stay with the Belmont theme and choose the Beaugay Stakes.
  • Handicapping Contest Races for May 12th, 2018:

    G3 Beaugay Stakes (5:46 PM EST) - http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/BEL051218USA-EQB.html#RACE9
    G3 Peter Pan Stakes (6:18 PM EST) - http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/BEL051218USA-EQB.html#RACE10
    G1 Man O' War Stakes (6:50 PM EST) - http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/BEL051218USA-EQB.html#RACE11
    Theme: Your Choice! You must use a budget of $500 across all three races.

  • sarinnesarinne Member
    I just don't think this weekend is going to happen for me as I just walked in the door. I was looking forward to playing. But weekend did start off great, hope for the same for everyone else. :)
  • edited May 2018
    G3 Beaugay Stakes - $25 WPS #4 Lido, $25 PS #5 Broken Bridle, $25 S #3 Tricky Escape
    Lido
    has won both of her races this year and has the best closing pace in this field. This daughter of Street Cry won an allowance race at Belmont last year at this 8.5 furlong distance.
    Broken Bridle is in her second race off an eight month layoff, so should improve from her first race this year when she finished a solid third in the Dahlia Stakes at Laurel.
    Tricky Escape finished third in a mile race at Belmont last year and then won next time out at Churchill. She should improve second time out after a ending a four month layoff in the Hillsborough Stakes at Tampa Bay in March.

    G3 Peter Pan Stakes - $30 WPS #3 Just Whistle, $30 PS #6 High North, $30 S #4 Blended Citizen
    Just Whistle
    , as a three year old, has been running extremely well, breaking his maiden last month at Keeneland in an 8.5 furlong race with a an excellent Equibase speed figure that is within range of what STATS Race Lens estimates will be needed to win in this race.
    High North won the Northern Spur Stakes at Oaklawn last month and looked good doing it, running basically the same Equibase speed figure as Just Whistle at the same 8.5 furlong distance.
    Blended Citizen was the also-eligible horse for last week's Kentucky Derby. In the past year, Kyle Frey in 53 dirt route starts has a 17% win rate and a 38% in the money rate, with an ROI of 132%.

    G1 Man O' War Stakes - $30 WPS #9 One Go All Go, $30 PS #2 Sadler's Joy, $20 S #7 Hi Happy
    One Go All Go
    has a run a 121 Equibase speed figure at the 9.5 furlong distance of this race just two months ago in the Mac Diarmida Stakes at Gulfstream while barely losing to Sadler's Joy.
    Sadler's Joy, in my opinion has lost a step in dropping 23 Equibase speed points, following the above race, in the Pan American Stakes at Gulfstream on the last day of March. He finished fourth and was 2 lengths behind One Go All Go who finished second. One Go All Go dropped 20 Equibase speed points himself but then won the Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland.
    Hi Happy won the Pan American, has not raced since then, and has not reached the speed figures that One Go All Go and Sadler's Joy have in the last 12 races for these three horses.

    Total Bets - $150 + $180 + $170 = $500
  • Sorry guys! I thought I'd have time to handicap this last night but it didn't work out. I was at my brother's college graduation today so I didn't get the chance to handicap or watch the races. Next time! @KenHamilton1955 - do you want to choose the theme and a race for next weekend?

    If you guys are interested, we could also just keep going with this "your choice" theme indefinitely. I would like to make it easier for people to play horizontal wagers though (like Daily Doubles, Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc.) so if you have any suggestions for how to do that, just let me know! We could possibly just choose a track each weekend and roll with that. I'm open to ideas =)
  • How about this - I choose Arlington Park for next Saturday and the rest of the group can work out the rest of the details as far as theme, races, etc.?
  • KMMKMM Member
    Sounds good to me. B)
  • Somehow I forgot all about the Preakness last night. Let’s use Pimlico for next Saturday.



  • KMMKMM Member
    Yep. Alot of good races on the undercard.
  • Hahaha no problem @KenHamilton1955. So does everyone want to just do "your choice" as the theme for next weekend, including your choice of three races at Pimlico? Let me know if you want to also do that going forward, or if you like specific themes each week.
  • How about the weekly winner gets to pick the track for the following Saturday and then everyone has a $500 budget to bet however they want on that card?
  • That's perfectly fine with me too. :)
  • jaefeatheredjaefeathered Member
    edited May 2018
    Handicapping Contest Track for May 19th, 2018: Pimlico

    Equibase Entries: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/PIM051918USA-EQB.html

    Past Performances for Races 1, 5, 6, and 12: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

    Past Performances for Races 2, 5, 7, and 9: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/HGrahamMotion/MOTION+H+GRAHAM/9999/summary.html

    Past Performances for Race 3: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/HARD+SPUN/2004/summary.html

    Past Performances for Races 4, 7, and 10: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Winstar_Farm_LLC/SPEIGHTSTOWN/1998/summary.html

    Past Performances for Race 8: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/SpendThrift/combined summary.htm

    Past Performances for Race 11: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/MIDSHIPMAN/2006/summary.html

    Past Performances for Race 13: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm

    Past Performances for Race 14: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/STREET+SENSE/2004/summary.html

    Theme: Your Choice! You must use a budget of $500 across the entire card, using a minimum of three races. You may write reasons for just one of the races, but people might ask questions about other races after the fact.
  • Since we're all going to be doing some mud handicapping tomorrow, I think it's worth pointing out a section of the Brisnet Ultimate PPs that you may or may not have noticed before.




    These show the statistics for a particular horse on an off track. The higher the highlighted numbers, the better. Let me know if you guys have any questions about reading this section of the PPs.
  • Be sure to check the latest news for today. There will be a lot of scratches due to weather..
  • sarinnesarinne Member
    I'm scratching here due to helping a friend with her newborn puppies so she can go to a funeral. I hate to miss as I'm looking forward to kicking back and relaxing after a long week, but I don't think that's an option today. Have fun everyone and hopefully see you next weekend if still not on puppy/dog duty. :)
  • edited May 2018
    Pimlico Race 10 Maryland Sprint Stakes - $25 WPS #8 Fellowship, $25 PS #5 Switzerland, $25 S #2 Heartwood
    Fellowship
    won at 6 furlongs and finished second at 7 furlongs earlier this year at Laurel on wet dirt with excellent Equibase speed figures. I am giving the edge to Fellowship over Switzerland as he is cutting back from longer distances which I think will help in the messy track today at Pimlico.
    Switzerland won at 6 furlongs at Oaklawn and at 6.5 furlongs at Aqueduct on wet dirt with excellent Equibase speed figures.
    Heartwood won at 6 furlongs on a sloppy track at Keeneland last month. I don't think his form is as good as my top two picks.

    Pimlico Race 12 Sir Barton Stakes - $25 WPS #6 Dream Baby Dream, $25 PS #8 Ax Man, $25 S #11 Title Ready
    Dream Baby Dream
    finished third in February at Oaklawn on a muddy track, has been a consistent runner, and is cutting back in distance from a couple of 9 furlong races.
    Ax Man has not run on an off track so I am not making him my top pick even though he won last time out at 8 furlongs, which is the farthest distance he has run so far.
    Title Ready has run his last three races at this distance and done well. He has not run on an off track, so we will see how he does in the muck at Pimlico today.

    Pimlico Race 13 Preakness Stakes - $50 WPS #7 Justify, $25 PS #5 Good Magic
    Justify
    has already run, and won, two races on off tracks, including the Kentucky Derby. He is a potential Triple Crown winner, I don't think the track conditions will be a problem, and I don't think anyone other than Good Magic can give him a test today.
    Good Magic finished second to Justify in the Kentucky Derby, just five Equibase speed points behind him. I think he can stick with him, but a couple of lengths behind.
    If I was going to pick a third place finisher, I would go with #2 Lone Sailor as he won on a sloppy track at Saratoga last year.
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