Weekly Handicapping Contest

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  • KMMKMM Member
    edited May 2018
    Preakness: w/p/s

    Lone Sailor: $25/$25/$25
    Justify: $25/$25/$25
    Quip: $25/$25/$25

    Dixie: w/p
    Fire Away: $35/$35
    Just Howard: $30/ $35

    Maryland Sprint: w/p
    Long Haul Bay: $40/$35

    Long Haul won G3 Bay Shore Stakes and is 3 for 4 for lifetime. Like sire Quality Road and trainer Chad Brown. Latest work very good-- fast.

    Lewisfield:$40/$35
    Trainer Jeff Runco is Mid-Atlantic trainer and knows Pimlico. Last out horse won listed MD race. Horse has never been worse than third in his career. Recent workouts have been fast.
  • jaefeatheredjaefeathered Member
    edited May 2018
    The Very One Stakes: $25 to WP on Chanteline; $25 to show on Keep Your Distance and Victoria's Fire

    Sir Barton Stakes: $25 to WPS on Ax Man; $25 to show on Pony Up

    Preakness Stakes: $75 to WPS on Justify; $40 on Good Magic to place and $35 to show

    Justify has already proven that he loves the slop, and there isn't a single new shooter in this race with stronger speed figures than him. Done deal. On to the Belmont for him. Chad Brown wouldn't send Good Magic here if he didn't think there was a chance to turn the tables on Justify, and he's shown that he can handle an off track before. I'm fully expecting him to finish second or third here.
  • 1 - jaefeathered: Ax Man - $97.50; Justify - $307.50 = $405
    2 - KenHamilton1955: Switzerland - $37.50; Ax Man - $57.50; Title Ready - $40.00; Justify - $205.00 = $340
    3 - KMM: Long Haul Bay - $59.50; Justify - $102.50 = $162

    Sorry I'm posting this so late. I haven't been feeling too well the last few days and it kept slipping my mind. I'll keep with the current pattern though and go with your choice of bets with a mandatory $500 total ticket cost at Santa Anita on the 26th.
  • Congrats to @jaefeathered and @KMM!
  • sarinnesarinne Member
    Good work you guys. I do want to play....hopefully i can this week. :)
  • KMMKMM Member
    congrats to the winners.
  • Handicapping Contest Track for May 26th, 2018: Santa Anita

    Equibase Entries: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA052618USA-EQB.html

    Past Performances for Races 1, 3, 5, 6, and 8: http://www.tlore.net/trainers/oneill/public/brisnet.cfm

    Past Performances for Races 5 and 9: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm

    Past Performances for Races 2, 4, and 8: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Vinery/MORE+THAN+READY/1997/summary.html

    Past Performances for Races 1, 7, and 9: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/PeterMiller/MILLER+PETER/9999/summary.html

    Theme: Your Choice! You must use a budget of $500 across the entire card, using a minimum of three races. You may write reasons for just one of the races, but people might ask questions about other races after the fact.
  • edited May 2018
    Race 4 - $30 WPS #5 Rockin Ready, $30 PS #2 Curlin's Journey = Total Bet $150
    I narrowed down the potential winners to these two horses based on their closing speeds in their last race, in which they finished close together. They both were accorded a 98 Equibase speed figure. I like Rockin Ready's closing speed better by about 3 lengths compared to Curlin's Journey. Would not be surprised by either horse winning.

    Race 7 - $30 WPS #7 Baby Gronk, $30 PS #2 Fashionably Fast = Total Bet $150
    I expect Baby Gronk and Fashionably Fast to both be near the lead(Baby Gronk will probably lead). Fashionably Fast had a troubled time in his last race in March, so I am hoping he runs back close to his debut race. Baby Gronk has just missed out on breaking his maiden in his last two races. I think he finishes the job today.

    Race 9 - $100 WP #7 It's a New Year = Total Bet $200
    It's a New Year is cutting back from an 8.5 furlong race in which he ran the highest Equibase speed figure in this field. He ran on the lead but gave way in the last 2.5 furlongs. I think that sets him up well for this 6 furlong race as the class of this field, barring something surprising from one of the two first time runners.
  • jaefeatheredjaefeathered Member
    edited May 2018
    Race 5: $20 Trifecta Box with Accelerate, City of Light, and Dr. Dorr ($120 total cost)

    Race 6: $30 to WPS on It'sinthepost; $30 to PS on Kenjistorm; $30 to S on Syntax($180 total cost)

    Race 7: $100 to WP on Baby Gronk ($200 total cost)

    I'd be genuinely shocked if Baby Gronk doesn't break his maiden today. He's got the best speed figures in the field by a longshot and was second in both of his last two starts.



  • 1 - jaefeathered: $340 trifecta; $124.50 It'sinthepost; $114 Kenjistorm; $260 Baby Gronk = $838.50
    2 - KenHamilton1955: $183 Rockin Ready; $54 Curlin's Journey; $99 Fashionably Fast; $72 Baby Gronk; $380 It's a New Year = $788.00

    @KenHamilton1955 and I both had spectacular weekends this weekend. Any thoughts on themes for next weekend? I'm happy to keep going with your choice of bets at a particular track if you guys are game.
  • Congrats to @jaefeathered. That trifecta was a great bet! :)
  • KMMKMM Member
    Congrats to you both!
  • sarinnesarinne Member
    Well done, Jae and Ken -- I love doing things this way, if only I could get the time and energy to prepare properly and play. I'm hoping for next weekend, the flexibility of trying new bets and doing our own thing is pretty fun! :)
  • @jaefeathered Which track for this weekend?
  • Maybe Penn National? I haven't decided yet haha. I need to see if I can get the PPs for every race.
  • Handicapping Contest Track for June 2nd, 2018: Belmont Park

    Equibase Entries: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/BEL060218USA-EQB.html

    Past Performances for Races 1, 4 and 10: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/RiceLinda/RICE+LINDA/9999/summary.html

    Past Performances for Races 2, 4, and 10: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/MEDAGLIA+D'ORO/1999/summary.html

    Past Performances for Race 3: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/BERNARDINI/2003/summary.html

    Past Performances for Races 5, 7, 8, and 9: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

    Past Performances for Race 6: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/HARD+SPUN/2004/summary.html

    Theme: Your Choice! You must use a budget of $500 across the entire card, using a minimum of three races. You may write reasons for just one of the races, but people might ask questions about other races after the fact.
  • Hahaha well turns out all of us were busy this past weekend! Should get a lot more activity for this upcoming weekend though at Belmont. I figure we can keep with the same theme.
  • I was intending to play but I decided to rest my eyes for a few minutes after lunch on Saturday and the next thing I knew it was 3 hours later. No time for naps this Thursday - Saturday. :)
  • Handicapping Contest Track for June 9th, 2018: Belmont Park

    Equibase Entries: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/BEL060918USA-EQB.html

    See the DRF PP's for the full card attached below!

    Theme: Your Choice! You must use a budget of $500 across the entire card, using a minimum of three races. You may write reasons for just one of the races, but people might ask questions about other races after the fact.
    ppBEL0999.pdf 843.4K
  • edited June 2018
    Race 4 - Acorn Stakes - $60 WPS - #3 Monomoy Girl
    Monomoy Girl
    is, in my opinion, the best 3-year-old filly on dirt in 2018. She is only a neck short of being undefeated in 7 career races. She ran an Equibase speed figure in the Kentucky Oaks well in excess of what STATS Race Lens estimates will be needed to win this race, so even a little bit of a bounce should not be an issue. Talk Veuve to Me could be a threat but has never run a flat mile. Spectator would also have had a shot but scratched.

    Race 7 - Woody Stephens Stakes - $60 WPS - #3 Engage
    Engage
    won the Gold Fever Stakes at Belmont last month and is undefeated in his two races at Belmont. He has never finished worse than second. My initial pick was Kanthaka but he was scratched.

    Race 11 - Belmont Stakes - $20 WPS #1 Justify, $20 PS #4 Hofburg, $40 S #10 Blended Citizen
    Justify
    is trying to become the 13th Triple Crown winner in the 99th year since Sir Barton was the first one. I am concerned that if he fails to hustle out of the inside post that his chances will be greatly diminished if he ends up behind several horses, as he has never raced in that position. However, it would be interesting to see how good he really is in a less than ideal trip, much as we saw how good Arrogate was when he blew the break at Dubai. And if he hustles out it would be interesting to see how he would do if Noble Indy goes with him and runs next to him on the outside for as far as Noble Indy could last. I wanted a Triple Crown winner this year. So even though I don't feel the emotional rooting I had for American Pharoah in 2015, or even for Bolt d'Oro and Audible(who I think would win this race if he was entered) this year, I will hope that he can pull it off. Hofburg looked to me in the Florida Derby like a horse that has some distance in him, and his Equibase speed figure in that race was just short of Justify's highest career speed figure. Blended Citizen actually ran an Equibase speed figure in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont last month equal to Justify's highest career speed figure, which was in the Kentucky Derby.
  • jaefeatheredjaefeathered Member
    edited June 2018
    Race 4 - G1 Acorn Stakes: $40 to WPS Monomoy Girl; $20 to WPS Talk Veuve to Me = $180 total

    Race 9 - G1 Metropolitan Mile: $30 to WPS on Bee Jersey; $17 to Show Warrior's Club; $15 to Show on Ransom the Moon = $122 total

    Race 11 - G1 Belmont Stakes: $2 Trifecta Box with Justify, Hofburg, Vino Rosso, and Tenfold; $50 to WPS on Justify = $198 total

    Justify looks like he's going to be the controlling speed in here, and I think he has a very very good chance to sweep the Triple Crown today. The only questions I have about him are the distance and what kind of toll five races in 17 weeks has taken on him. He does look tremendous physically though, and Bob Baffert knows how to train a Triple Crown winner.

    This looks like one of the best Belmont fields I can remember based on pedigree. Most horses aren't bred for a mile and a half anymore, but Hofburg, Vino Rosso, and Tenfold clearly fit in here, and you could absolutely make an argument for Free Drop Billy (by Union Rags, a Belmont winner, out of a Giant's Causeway mare) and Restoring Hope (by Giant's Causeway, out of a Tapit mare) as well.

    Hofburg is by Tapit, who has sired three of the last four Belmont winners (and the only exception to that was where Frosted came in second to American Pharoah). His broodmare sire is Touch Gold, who also won the Belmont Stakes, and his second damsire is A.P. Indy. He's also run like a very talented horse in his career, so he's my top choice to either upset or finish second. He's trained by Bill Mott, who won the Belmont before with Drosselmeyer.

    Vino Rosso is by Curlin, who finished second in the Belmont by a head and who has already sired a Belmont winner in Palace Malice, and is out of a Street Cry mare. I also highly respect Steve Haskin's opinion, and he had Vino Rosso to win the Kentucky Derby originally. He had a massive amount of dirt kicked in his eyes in the Derby, so I'm going to give him a pass on that race. He is also trained by Todd Pletcher, who has won the Belmont a huge number of times, which gives him a big chance here.

    Tenfold is another by Curlin, out of a Tapit mare, so he obviously fits well in here as well. He's showed some talent in the past, so I think he's got a live shot in here.
  • Trying to get this done quickly.

    Race 6 -- Jaipur invitational

    $5 Trifecta Box on Stormy Liberal, Conquest Tsunami, Disco Partner, and Blind Ambition. Ticket Cost - $120

    Race 8 -- Just A Game

    $20 Exacta Box on On Leave, Lull, and Off Limits. Ticket Cost -- $120

    Race 11 Belmont Stakes

    $10 Trifecta Box on Justify, Hofburg, Vino Rosso and Tenfold. $20 show on Tenfold. Ticket Cost - $260

    I have to agree with pretty much everything Jae said so I really don't want to be repetitive. lol I love the aptitude for distance in pedigree in the colts I boxed, with the exception of Justify, but I feel he's on a roll of momentum and his works and physic suggest he'll get the job done today. I'm adding the show bet on Tenfold to get me to $500 ( I hope!), and also because I love the odds I'm getting on him.
  • @jaefeathered - Monomoy Girl ($152); Talk Veuve to Me ($66); Bee Jersey ($253.50); Justify ($247.50) = $719 total
    @KenHamilton1955 - Monomoy Girl ($228); Engage ($285); Justify ($99); Hofburg ($37) = $649 total
    @sarinne - N/A

    Sorry about the delay on this one! I think I had my first migraine last night, which is when I meant to get this done. Too many weird health issues lately.

    It looks like Churchill Downs has a great card this upcoming Saturday, so let's go with that for next week =)
  • Congrats Jae -- here's hoping for no more health issues! :)
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