Weekly Handicapping Contest

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  • Handicapping Contest Track for July 21st, 2018: Saratoga

    Equibase Entries: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Winstar_Farm_LLC/sire_summary.htm

    Past Performances for Race 1:

    Past Performances for Races 2, 3, 6, 9 and 11: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

    Past Performances for Races 2, 3, and 4: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Winstar_Farm_LLC/COLONEL+JOHN/2005/summary.html

    Past Performances for Race 5: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Winstar_Farm_LLC/sire_summary.htm (under Gemologist - Karen's Gem)

    Past Performances for Races 2 and 7: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Darley/HARD+SPUN/2004/summary.html

    Past Performances for Race 8: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/RiceLinda/RICE+LINDA/9999/summary.html

    Past Performances for Races 2 and 10: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/HGrahamMotion/MOTION+H+GRAHAM/9999/summary.html

    Theme: Your Choice! You must use a budget of $500 using a minimum of three races. You may write reasons for just one of the races, but people might ask questions about other races after the fact.

    Again, sorry I couldn't find Brisnet PPs for race 1! I hope this suffices.

  • Sorry I was apparently too tired last night hahaha. Here's the Equibase link to the entries: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SAR072118USA-EQB.html
  • Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming: $25 to WPS on Behavioral Bias

    Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight: $50 to WPS on Binary; $50 to PS on Fed Fever

    I like that Binary has worked in behind horses and finished up well, which should serve him very well in his first start. He looks talented to me, and his trainer has shown a lot of success at Saratoga in the past. George Weaver, who trains Fed Fever, has also shown a lot of success with 2yos at Saratoga and I'm a complete sucker for Fed Biz offspring. I also remember liking him at the FT Mid-Atlantic Sale.

    G3 Sanford Stakes: $25 to WPS Strike Silver; $50 to PS Lexitonian
  • edited July 2018
    Race 6: #2 Nitrous $150 W - Nitrous just lost by a neck on debut while running an Equibase speed figure almost equal to what STATS Race Lens estimates will be needed to win this race.

    Race 9 (Grade III)Sanford Stakes: #1 Sombeyay $50 WPS - Sombeyay won for fun on debut and barely lost in the Tremont Stakes. This looks to be a very competitive field.

    Race 10 (Grade I)Diana Stakes: #1 Sistercharlie $200 W - Sistercharlie has run 4 Equibase speed figures in a row 110 and above(STATS Race Lens estimates a 116 speed figure will be needed to win this race). She has finished out of the money only once in 8 career races. She is a Chad Brown trainee and has the best closing pace in this field.


    Total Bets = $500
  • @KenHamilton1955 absolutely dominated last weekend haha. Every horse he picked won their respective race, whereas none of mine did.

    Since this hasn't been particularly popular for people to play every weekend, I think I'm going to maybe just bring this back for the really big weekends. Or if any of you really want to play a certain weekend, just let me know and I'll set things up for us. :)
  • Would you guys be interested in doing Saratoga this weekend? There are a ton of fantastic stakes races going on.
  • If I don't end up going on a road trip to Montana, I would be.
  • That sounds like fun though! Are you going to see anything in particular?
  • KMMKMM Member
    Let's do a Saratoga weekend!
  • Count me in!
  • Alright let's do it then =) I'll post the entries later this week.
  • @jaefeathered, no it was just going to be a quick weekend road trip, but that's been put off, so barring any bad health (stomach flu going through my family), I'm in! :)
  • All right! We’re getting the band back together! :)
  • Handicapping Contest Track for August 25th, 2018: Saratoga

    Equibase Entries: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SAR082518USA-EQB.html

    Past Performances for Race 1: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Winstar_Farm_LLC/PIONEEROF+THE+NILE/2006/summary.html

    Past Performances for Races 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, and 13: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html

    Past Performances for Races 3, 4, 6, 9 and 11: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/MarkCasse/CASSE+MARK/9999/summary.html

    Past Performances for Race 5, 8, and 10: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/HGrahamMotion/MOTION+H+GRAHAM/9999/summary.html

    Past Performances for Races 7 and 8: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm

    Past Performances for Race 12:

    Theme: Your Choice! You must use a budget of $500 using a minimum of three races. You may write reasons for just one of the races, but people might ask questions about other races after the fact.

    Sorry I couldn't find Brisnet PPs for race 12! I hope this suffices. Equibase also now offers speed ratings for each race on a horse's results tab, so that's another resource you can use.

  • edited August 2018
    Race 1: $75 WP #4 Souper Catch (Total Bet = $150)
    Souper Catch
    has ran one race since being reported as a gelding and ran an Equibase speed figure equal to what STATS Race Lens estimates will be need to win this race. Cutting way back on distance in this race I think will benefit him, also.

    Race 8 - GI Ballerina Stakes: $75 WP #7 Marley's Freedom (Total Bet = $150)
    Marley's Freedom
    has won three races in a row, including two graded stakes races. I doubt that Bob Baffert would be shipping her clear across the country unless he was supremely confident that she can win this race. Lewis Bay and Finley'sluckycharm should be the main competition, but Marley's Freedom's Equibase speed figures have been more consistent.

    Race 11 - GI Travers Stakes: $100 WP #9 Good Magic (Total Bet = $200)
    Good Magic
    won the Haskell last month. He has been pretty consistent in his Equibase speed figures. This is a very competitive figure. Probably comes down to which horse is the one feeling the most up to the 10 furlong task this afternoon. I'll be rooting for Wonder Woman, I mean, Wonder Gadot. :)

    TOTAL OF ALL BETS = $500
  • @KenHamilton1955 werrrrre back! :lol: Hope others will join! @carolinarkansas @KMM

    Race 7 -- Personal Ensign Stakes

    Abel Tasman/Wow Cat/Farrell/Elate -- $10 Superfecta Box ($240 total, and only because I've not tried this bet before and decided to get my feet wet finally!)

    Because I just can't decide...... Abel Tasman and Elate really have never disappointed their records speak volumes, but Wow Cat comes in from Chili as a MGSW there and her only race here was second to the apparently peaking Farrell in the Shuvee here at Saratoga last out.....gotta give them all a nudge.

    Race 6 -- Ballerina Stakes

    Ivy Bell -- $50 P/S ($100 total)

    Race 11 -- Travers Stakes

    Wonder Godot -- $25 W/PS ($75 total)
    Tenfold -- $10 S
    Catholic Boy -- $25 W/P/S ($75 total)

    Someone please let me know if I've distributed money wrong......cannot remember the rule on that :)

  • jaefeatheredjaefeathered Member
    edited August 2018
    Personal Ensign: $25 to WPS on Abel Tasman; $25 to PS on Elate ($125 total)

    Forego: $50 to WPS on City of Light; $20 to PS on No Dozing; $20 to PS on C Z Rocket; $15 to Show on Warrior's Club ($245 total)

    Travers: $25 to Win on Mendelssohn; $30 to PS on Good Magic; $25 to Show on Gronkowski; $20 to Show on Wonder Gadot ($130 total)

    I know a lot of people have given up on Mendelssohn, but I'm being stubborn here. I do think that either he wins impressively or he finishes off the board though, which is why I've only bet him to win in here. Good Magic is probably the best horse in the race, but he may not be at his best at a mile and a quarter and he hasn't shown particularly impressive speed figures for what people make him out to be. Gronkowski really surprised me in the Belmont, but he seems like he'll really like a mile and a quarter and seems to have adapted well to Chad Brown's barn. I've always been a huge fan of Wonder Gadot, so I'm throwing her on my ticket too. This is a tough spot for her, but she's training spectacularly and Mark Casse thinks that she's best at longer distances.
  • Maybe mine wasn't the smartest bet, but at least I tried :lol:
  • @KenHamilton1955 - Marley's Freedom ($378.75)
    @sarinne - Catholic Boy ($377.50)
    @jaefeathered - Abel Tasman ($98.75); Elate ($61.25); City of Light ($130) = $290

    Congratulations to @KenHamilton1955 and @sarinne! If you guys are interested in doing this again this upcoming weekend, let me know. We could even open it up to both Del Mar and Saratoga across the whole weekend if you want, since great racing seems to go from Saturday until Monday (Labor Day).
  • sarinnesarinne Member
    edited August 2018
    I'd be willing to do across the country/across the weekend if all works out well at home, @jaefeathered -- sounds like fun :) And congrats to both you and Ken for your clever betting!
  • If we do it across the weekend, we can probably do a $1000 bankroll. I think that's a little too much for me to do in terms of finding PPs for all of the races, but if you want them for particular races, just let me know and I'll post them.
  • Thanks for the extra cash....still usual rules? I think we can all find our way. To be honest, I've never felt comfortable using PPs as a way to choose my horses, so don't worry about posting for me. I would never dare to use them as reasoning. I tend to just look at basic things, pedigree, workouts and such.
  • I'm always happy to help people learn about how to read PPs, but it's totally fine if you're not comfortable using them. They do include pedigree, workouts, etc. so it's nice to see everything all on one page without searching high and low for them. Otherwise yes, the usual rules would apply. You can bet on every race if you want! Three is just the minimum.
  • Thanks for the offer, Jae. It's fun to learn at your own pace, and I like how we are playing now so I can try silly bets like superfectas and such. :lol: Another question I did have is that when we are kind of doing our own thing at multiple tracks, are multi race wagers (I think that's the correct term for a Pick Four) okay? I'm not going to say I'm going to try that again, but might be a good warm up for the BC which was so hard, but so fun last year :)
  • Thanks, y’all. Tommy T scratching hurt me in race 1 as I really didn’t have time to rethink that race or maybe choose a different one. Count me in for this weekend.
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