Weekly Handicapping Contest

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Comments

  • Sure Carol, make it impossible for me to win now! :lol: I will stay at Delaware with the Kent Stakes, Okay?
  • tincuptincup Member
    Because exactas come in multiple forms and at multiple units, we'll need some explanation of type.
    Straight
    Box
    Wheel
    Obviously we could play at the minimum unit price...sometimes 1.00 dollar, others 2.00
    There are contests that play a three horse box format. That would be the easiest to absorb first time.
  • Oh, Heavens -- in over my head on this one! haha Jae, might be hard for me to explain why I pick something on a format I've only done very few times (in dog racing!) and only on hunches! (and actually I think that might have been a quinella when I think back!) Much for me to learn -- start teaching me please! :)
  • carolinarkansascarolinarkansas hot springs, arkansasMember
    just a plain exacta....not boxed...or wheeled...have no clue what a wheel exacta is...just plain simple pick first and second...right?
  • tincuptincup Member

    just a plain exacta....not boxed...or wheeled...have no clue what a wheel exacta is...just plain simple pick first and second...right?

    Plain first and second is a straight. Yes
  • lizzielizzie Member
    I'll move it on over to the west side. Los Alamitos Derby.
  • KMMKMM Member
    I vote for the plain exacta for a start. B)
  • tincuptincup Member
    How many races?
    As difficult as it is to find a single horse to cover a three slotted payout, finding two is harder by degrees respectful of payout. To choose those in absolute order is ridiculous in a contest format.
    Setting aside the lucky pick, most will come out with nothing, unless a negative experience can translate to trying harder next.
    Very few races are worthy of straight exacta bets.
    Very few...with excellent handicapping skills.
    Becomes an exercise in odds/ probability.
  • KMMKMM Member
    edited July 2017
    OK...then what would be a less restrictive betting strategy that would educate us neophytes? Maybe do one race that way out of the 4? Trying to think of how we can structure this so we beginners can learn. I am game for whatever you guys suggest. I agree tincup, 1-2 choice is much harder to achieve statistically.
  • KMMKMM Member
    Pick win, place, show and get credit for whatever comes in? But how to make it different from other game?
  • lizzielizzie Member
    The exacta box would give you the option of choosing 2 or 3 horses to come in either 1st or 2nd. A $2 box costs $4 for two horses or $12 for 3. It gives you better odds at having a chance at a win. A straight you have to be exact as to who comes in 1st and 2nd. We can try another time with more horses.
  • KMMKMM Member
    So if we play with let us say $50 for all for races, or whatever the total is, we could bet that sum over the races, Lizzie?
  • lizzielizzie Member
    edited July 2017
    I would say no matter what type of exacta we use or how many horses chosen for that week the payout for each race would be based on a $1 or $2 exacta. For example, this weeks contest is a straight 1 horse over another single horse at $2 would cost $2 for each race. Whomever gets the most in payouts wins.
  • KMMKMM Member
    You hosters in this case, would have to define the dollar amounts, or do we follow the tracks? In which case, you guys would need to explain parameters, since I guess we are doing real betting. K
  • lizzielizzie Member
    edited July 2017
    Another week maybe the winner could give everyone $50 to split between the 3 races of the winners' choices, to use however they like using only 1 bet per race and add up the payouts? Something like that, maybe.
  • KMMKMM Member
    Not my decision. B)
  • lizzielizzie Member
    Yes, she would and I'm sure she will. @jaefeathered is doing a great job hosting <3
  • KMMKMM Member
    She is; you, tincup, jae, and ken are good educators. East Coast Time. Have to get up by 7:00. Goodnight and thanks!
  • jaefeatheredjaefeathered Member
    edited July 2017
    I don't think this game will always be perfectly "clean" because certain bets are more difficult than others to actually win with. In this instance, we can just go with a straight exacta (minimum bet) for each race. If nobody hits a single exacta, I'll determine winners based on who got the closest (so if somebody picks the winner and the third place finisher and another player picks the second place finisher and third place finisher, the first player wins).

    In general, don't worry too much about "winning" here. It's really about learning how to handicap the races and learning about the different types of bets available to you.

    Eventually I want to get to the point where each player gets $20 or $50 for the weekend and plays that money as they see fit, but I think we need to go through the basics first.
  • lizzielizzie Member
    edited July 2017
    Sounds good jae!
  • Agree -- and thank you to anyone willing to offer advice! Jae, I do still wonder how those of us who have never done all this will be able to explain our choices. That's probably just me and KMM, and maybe she will be able to, but I surely wont. haha I hope you understand. :)
  • I'll shoot you a PM, @sarinne.
  • Thank you, @jaefeathered ! :)
  • tincuptincup Member
    sarinne said:

    Agree -- and thank you to anyone willing to offer advice! Jae, I do still wonder how those of us who have never done all this will be able to explain our choices. That's probably just me and KMM, and maybe she will be able to, but I surely wont. haha I hope you understand. :)

    One strategy you might consider.
    Handicap your race for the horse that you would normally use as your best pick to win. Set him/her aside and handicap for a horse you feel will be the horse that would be likely to beat you.
    Choosing which horse you'll use in first should reflect the chance you believe as the most likely.
    Using a double handicapping method should allow you to explain your first place horse and your second.
  • Thank you for the advice @tincup! I'll have to try this, and, most importantly, not overthink! I believe that is where my anxieties go with exotics! :anguished:
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