Weekly Handicapping Contest

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  • jaefeatheredjaefeathered Member
    edited July 2017
    Handicapping Contest Races for July 15th, 2017:

    G3 Kent Stakes (4:55 PM EST) - http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/DEL071517USA-EQB.html#RACE8 G1 Delaware Handicap - http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/DEL071517USA-EQB.html#RACE9 G3 Los Alamitos Derby (7:58 PM EST) - http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/LRC071517USA-EQB.html#RACE7
    Theme: Exacta (you must pick the first and second place finishers, in order)
  • Well, as a tiny little owner in Cistron I only have figure out who will finish second in the Los Alamitos Derby. :)
  • Good luck to you and Jae, both, Ken! :) Even if he's not everyone's number one or number two pick, you know everyone will be delighted when he wins!
  • Thanks, sarinne!
  • lizzielizzie Member
    How exciting! Good luck!
  • KMMKMM Member
    edited July 2017
    Thanks guys! Thanks for strategies, tincup!
  • KMMKMM Member
    Aren't there 4 races?
  • KMMKMM Member
    If there aren't 4, at least these are races with a lot of info. Thanks. K
  • Nope, we just had four winners last week because the third place finishers tied, so we had four total races last week instead of three.
  • WezzieWezzie Member
    Kent Stakes-
    1st- Lunaire: Pedigree and past performance says he will be coming hard at the end. 2nd - Frostmourne: Proven on turf at a mile, pedigree says that may be his limit.

    Delaware Handicap-
    1st - Songbird - don't think any one in this field can touch her
    2nd- Line of Best Fit - 1.25 miles no problem, old iron horse who will just keep coming

    Los Alamitos Derby -

    1st- Kimbear - he has been running just behind much stronger, pedigree says he is just starting to mature
    2nd- Cistron - hard hard tryer, may enjoy the tighter turns of Los Alamitos
  • tincuptincup Member
    Nice job Wezzie...
    That first turn at los al is pretty tight. It'll be interesting to see if it claims any victims. Yet, its the stretch at los al that has seemed to be the Achilles heel for so many.
  • carolinarkansascarolinarkansas hot springs, arkansasMember
    edited July 2017
    Kent...Froustmourne/Adonis Creed...
    Froustmourne because he is favored/AC because I loved his daddy on the track
    Delaware H...Songbird/Weep No More (liked her odds)
    Los Al Derby...West Coast/Cistron
    WC because he is by Flatter/C because several folks here in the forum really like
    him
    except for Songbird which to my mind is pretty much a given...don't think they can touch her...she is running here so her ailing owner can watch her run...IMO
  • Can you specify what you like about each horse's pedigree @carolinarkansas? Any particular lines that you like to see in a top racehorse?
  • lizzie said:

    How exciting! Good luck!

    Thanks, lizzie.


  • KMMKMM Member
    Am I good to go if I make choices Friday night?
  • Kent Stakes: Master Plan/Frostmourne. I'm going to gamble on Master Plan because I think he's shown a lot of promise in his past efforts at this level. I think he has a diverse enough pedigree to get this distance on turf. Frostmourne looks like the best horse going in, from the few things I understand in the PPs, but I think I can beat him with Master Plan.

    Delaware Handicap: Songbird/Weep No More. Songbird can just gallop around the track and beat the rest, WNM like that she is a previous G1 winner and think (hope) that her pedigree will also help her to outlast the other fillies in the race.

    Los Alamitos Derby: Kimbear/West Coast. Picking Kimbear for similar reasons to Wezzie. But I will add that I love seeing Sky Mesa as his broodmare sire. In the past I've done well picking horses with Sky Mesa as their broodmare sire (even on dirt). I'm using him over West Coast because I'm trying Tincup's suggested handicapping method (and taking it to the extreme of trying to beat the favored horse), and I think of the group, Kimbear has the best chance of beating West Coat. I like West Coast, his dam was a champion filly and Flatter is AP Indy over the La Troienne family, and has thrown some very nice horses.

    Do I sound dumb enough yet, Jae? :lol: :wink:
  • KMM said:

    Am I good to go if I make choices Friday night?

    Yup, you can make your choices whenever you like, as long as you do it before the horses leave the gate for each race.

    Looks great @sarinne!
  • KMMKMM Member
    edited July 2017
    G3 Kent Stakes: Going for Adonis Creed, sort of out on the limb. Like Dynaformer over Pulpit. The horse has been improving, and has a lighter weight than the favorites. Did the comparison that tincup recommended. Frostmourne looks to be the best of the lot by pedigree, so he is my second choice. Master Plan is second choice in the odds.

    Delaware Handicap: I like Martini Glass. Great recent works. Sire is direct son of Mr. P. with dam as Miesque of sire. Damline is old fashioned bloodlines, back in the day tracing to 1/2 sister of Whriaway. Second choice is Songbird. I think every one has already said everything about her. Performance, pedigree, etc.

    Los Al Derby: Liking Klimpt for first. Good recent works. I like the pedigree very much. I like Quality Road. Damline is the same as Concern. I am voting for Cistron for second: good workouts nos. I like owner, trainer, and jockey. I like War Front on top, and the older bloodlines on the bottom. Very little crosses in the first 5 generations. Go Cistron.
  • Kent Stakes:
    Frostmourne: Graded stakes winner, 5 starts (5 in the $), Speightstown
    Lunaire: Malibu Moon/Dynaformer, stakes placed, jockey

    Delaware Handicap
    Songbird: Can't bet against her.
    Martini Glass: Second last start, good works, improving.

    Los Alamitos Derby
    West Coast: Flatter/Caressing, Baffert, 5 starts ( 5 in the $), consistent works.
    Cistron: Won on dirt, graded placed, consistent, 9 starts (8 in the $), sentimental choice.
  • G3 Kent Stakes: Frostmourne / The Tortoise

    In four of five career starts, Frostmourne has been first or second. Last out, he won the G2 Penn Mile over Big Score and Cistron. He stretches out here, which I think will be to his benefit considering his damsire (whose progeny's average winning distance is 9.1f) His trainer/jockey combo is also fantastic, given their win percentages. I've got The Tortoise in the second spot, as I think he's drastically improved since switching to turf in his last two races (he's got a win and then was second by a neck). He obviously hasn't been racing anywhere near the same level as Frostmourne, but their Brisnet speed figures aren't too far off and he's had some very sharp workouts recently. The Tortoise also has a win over the Delaware Park turf course.

    G1 Delaware Handicap: Songbird / Martini Glass

    Songbird is the clear class of this field. The only race she ever lost was by the barest nostril to multiple champion Beholder, and I don't see any Beholders in this field. For the second spot, I was torn between Weep No More and Martini Glass. Weep No More obviously has the class edge over Martini Glass, but Weep No More hasn't won in over a year and Martini Glass won three of her last four races by open lengths. The only race Martini Glass lost in that time was by a neck where she was closing into a slow pace. Martini Glass's trainer and jockey also both have a higher win percentage than Weep No More's.

    G3 Los Alamitos Derby: Cistron / West Coast

    So obviously I'm a little biased towards Cistron, but I think he also has the pace advantage in this race. None of the other horses look like they want the lead (although I'm sure he'll be pressed on the lead), so he might be able to squeak out some softer fractions. I'm also hoping that the tighter turns at Los Al play to his strengths on the lead. I'm most afraid of West Coast (due to his monstrous 99 Beyer earned last time), and I'm sure he'll come flying at Cistron late. I think he benefitted from an extremely fast pace in the Easy Goer at Belmont last time, and he's having to switch jockeys away from Mike Smith for this race. I get the feeling that Klimt and Kimbear will both prefer sprinting to routing, so I'm playing against them today. I would be much more afraid of them if this was 7f instead of 9f.
  • lizzielizzie Member
    Kent: Master Plan/Lunaire

    Master Plan: love all the Candy's!!! he looks fantastic, you got Todd Pletcher with Ty Gaffalione riding-who is just on complete fire right now, i see a winning combo
    Lunaire-love the Malibu Moon with Dynaformer underneath, I'd like to see Mike Smith(so cal boy) bring him in for at least 2nd.

    Deleware H. : Songbird/Weep No More

    Songbird: what can i say? I think we all know!
    Weep No More: Love this Mine.shaft filly and she loves to run with Songbird. I would like to see her catch her just once.

    Los Al Derby: Ciston/B Squrared

    Cistron: Love watching this baby from The Factor run! Always hits the board, great jockey/trainer combo!
    B Squared: One of my favorites out of Square Eddie! If he has a good race he can win.


  • edited July 2017
    Grade III Kent Stakes: #6 Frostmourne / #2 Lunaire

    Frostmourne has looked really strong in his first two races of 2017 and he has the best closing pace of any horse in the field. He won the Penn Mile so we'll see if he can handle the additional 2 furlongs. Lunaire has run on turf in his last 3 races and has steadily improved in speed figures, so I will take a chance that the improvement continues today.

    Grade I Delaware Handicap: #5 Songbird / #2 Martini Glass

    Songbird is clearly the class of this field based on her body of work last year and her first race this year. Hard to pick against a filly with only an extremely very, very, very, very close loss to the great Beholder. Martini Glass ran a very respectable race last month, finishing second in the Obeah Stakes by a neck. Has shown a nice closing kick in her 4 races in 2017.

    Grade III Los Alamitos Derby: #2 Cistron / #5 West Coast

    A case can be made that either Cistron wins gate to wire or else West Coast wins in the final jump.

    Cistron has been extremely consistently in his last 4 races(Equibase speed figures of 98-100-100-100) and there is no racehorse with more heart than him(e.g., February 2017 allowance race at Santa Anita, Northern Spur Stakes at Oaklawn). If he gets a soft pace to lead down the backstretch, then I will not be surprised at all to see him lead all the way. West Coast looked extremely good in winning the Easy Goer Stakes last month but that was around only one turn. I expect him to bounce from that effort but could win if he benefits from running into a hot pace again.
  • KMMKMM Member
    edited July 2017
    Ken. You must be cutting and pastng. You have Lunsire comments posted 2x. K
  • The comments are different @KMM, but the names are the same. Not a big deal, as he listed his picks next to the race name, so I was able to tell what he meant.
  • KMMKMM Member
    OK. Just wanted to make sure he was good to go. K
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