Unbridled's Song

I couldn't find a Discussion Thread just for Unbridled's Song.
Forever Unbridled Breaks Through in Comely
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/96259/forever-unbridled-breaks-through-in-comely
Forever Unbridled Breaks Through in Comely
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/96259/forever-unbridled-breaks-through-in-comely
Comments
By Claire Novak, The Blood-Horse August 27, 2016
This year Baffert showed up with Juddmonte's Arrogate—a colt previously untested in graded stakes competition—and blew the 3-year-old division apart with the fastest Travers performance in history, and a new track record for 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga Race Course.
With Mike Smith in the irons, Arrogate set quick fractions and then opened up by daylight off the final turn. The son of Unbridled's Song blazed under the wire in a final time of 1:59.36.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/214577/arrogate-blazes-to-travers-record
Unbridled for ever to me...forever for me...
By: Twinspires.com on August 30, 2016
Arrogate won the $1.25-million Travers Stakes on Saturday August 27, at Saratoga Race Course. In doing so, he not only defeated the top 3-year-olds of 2016 but also all other horses who have raced since January 1, 1990, when Brisnet.com started assigning Speed Ratings to races.
http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2016/8/30/arrogate’s-travers-victory-earns-brisnetcom’s-highest-rating-ever
124 is the number!
So we get speed figures.
Brisnet
Beyer
Equibase
RPR
By sunday morning the chatter had already begun and one knew this was going to garner giant numbers from most, perhaps all the speed machines.
At some point there should be some good articles explaining the performance and comparing it to others and maybe giving some of us the needed ammo to attack the east coast bias that typically goes into the process.
could you explain "the east coast bias" to which you refer. (I know what bias means....)
Forgetting for a moment all the reasons for the bias, I`ll try to explain my thoughts on how it comes to play.
The speed figures start with raw numbers made for each track across the country. Humans determine , on any given day or race ,the variant the track will have. If fast, the numbers are changed to explain faster times. If slow, they will show that. Plus or minus, each day and race will see a variant change the raw number. At least thats what is supposed to happen. Because humans input these variants into the models, the figures can be manipulated. Funny thing is, sometimes the manipulation back fires and then you get to see the makers of the numbers dance around the official figures, redistribute variant and come out with a better number.
It has happened to A Beyer twice in the last couple of years. Those were important races and he had no choice but to redo. Makes me wonder how many times it really happens, but is let go because its just some claimer/allow without any real regional importance.
We know the main factor in a speed figure is time of finish and track variant. but we also know every race is measured within its self. How easy was it get, how did the fractions play a part. What was the level of competition. Human involvement.
So, if you were to have a final time of 2.00 flat in a 10 furlong at Toga. One at Del Mar. One at Santa Anita, at gulfstream, at Belmont,at Churchill, at etal...and used the raw number of each track, guess where each number would be put at.
highest to lowest
toga
belmont
churchill
gulfstream
santa anita
del mar
These are fair raw speed figures. Its when adding the variants that things turn funny. The eastern track doesnt reflect the days that gain speed, and the western track isnt given credit for slow days. The huge difference between a performance in the east versus the same in the west can not be explained by variant.
Also..Gulfstream is a conveyor belt of speed and wins on an easy lead, on the dirt. Yet the speed figures rarely reflect that. Its a lear example of protecting the interest of eastern racing.
Added some stuff in an edit. Needed to correct the raw ( not variant) speed list.