Weekly Handicapping Contest

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  • Well just to keep us ahead, if we do quinellas, my race pick would be the Filly and Mare Sprint. If we do Pick 6, you can decide how is easiest to do that, Jae. Excited about this weekend! :)
  • I think there's usually just one Pick 6 per day, if I'm not mistaken. Do you know @KenHamilton1955?
  • @jaefeathered There is one Pick-6 on Saturday at Del Mar, races 7-12, billed as an “Ultra Pick 6”.
  • Okay, that will work, since everyone seems pretty open this week. I guess as the winner last week, I'll go with the Ultra Pick 6. Question about that: If we post our picks now since we have the early luxury of weighing the fields, can we go in and change scratches before race 7 starts? I know once race 7 starts we are "locked in", but I don't want to make it more difficult on you, Jae, if I pick early. Everyone just has different times which is best for them to look at the races and do their handicapping before Saturday. :)
  • jaefeatheredjaefeathered Member
    edited October 2017
    No, that's fine @sarinne if you want to make your picks early and change later. It shouldn't be a problem at all, but if I make a mistake when I tally up the winners, just be sure to point it out and I'll fix it.
  • What is the $ limit for the ticket?
  • What is the $ limit for the ticket?

    Oooh good question, I forgot to ask! Is $250 reasonable? Open to input, I don't have any experience with that.
  • Or $300, I guess, since it's 6 races?
  • carolinarkansascarolinarkansas hot springs, arkansasMember
    ok....we got 6 races....but we can spend our money anyway we want...correct
  • ok....we got 6 races....but we can spend our money anyway we want...correct

    You are just picking the winner in those six races. But we need to decide how much our ticket price is first. That will determine how many horses you can use, in total, though you don't always have to bet that full amount. I hope that makes sense. :)
  • I think $250 should be reasonable for a Pick 6. I can play around with the betting calculator when I get home, but I agree that we need to bump up the ticket cost for us. I don't think anyone has hit a multi-race wager yet xD
  • edited October 2017
    By the way, on the Del Mar wagering menu for Saturday the minimum cost for the Ultra Pick-6 is $2. I know we can do our own minimum, but as an example with a $2 minimum if you pick 2 horses per race the cost is $128.
  • Wow that's expensive! Okay, I'll definitely have to play around with the betting calculator when I get home then. Thanks for pointing that out! Maybe we go up to $1000? =O
  • Haha. When you have time, whatever you think is fair is great, Jae. This will be lots of fun!! :)
  • Alright so $2 makes a much bigger difference than I thought hahaha. Let's do $5,000 for our maximum ticket cost. We do have unlimited budgets after all, and this is a special occasion. =)
  • Alright so $2 makes a much bigger difference than I thought hahaha. Let's do $5,000 for our maximum ticket cost. We do have unlimited budgets after all, and this is a special occasion. =)

    Awesome, Jae! Looking forward to a fun week -- hope everyone can participate!!! :)
  • Posting this for my reference (and anyone else that would like it), while preparing their picks:

    https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling-calculator

    Bet amount $2 and bet type Pick 6 with box unchecked, correct, Jae?
  • Yup, that's it!
  • Filly and Mare Turf:

    Cambodia -- going to take a chance on her since she is loving the Del Mar turf this year and hoping that experience there might give her an edge.
    Dacita -- though she was disappointing in the Flower Bowl, she has an incredible resume, and is probably the one most likely to threaten Lady Eli, IMHO.
    Lady Eli -- the race is hers to lose. She has been impressive this year, and I see her going in strong and ready to retire on top after being the runner-up last year. She really has no peer in her division nationally.

    Sprint:

    Drefong -- powerful and impressive and speedy in his races going in. A champion last year, and this year I don't doubt he will be again.
    Mind Your Biscuits -- this guy deserves a place on my ticket because he always puts out a tremendous effort when he ships out to big races.
    Roy H -- huge performance in his last race and won with ease. Because of his form this year, I am choosing to include him.

    Mile: (I honestly have no clue how to bet this race lol)

    Midnight Storm -- MGSW on the Del Mar Turf, seems a consistent competitor.
    World Approval -- Such a versatile, well-traveled and accomplished runner. Big chance to win.
    Ribchester -- Impressive Euro runner, looks fabulous on paper. Here to win.
    Roly Poly -- Has beaten Ribchester! And l love her pedigree, have to include her.

    Juvenile:

    Free Drop Billy -- he looked great in the Breeders' Futurity. Pedigree says he's got the ability to beat the favorite.
    Good Magic -- I love the pedigree on this boy, bred to run all day, so I'm making room for him. Yes, he's a maiden, but second in the Champagne and the Belmont surface is very different than Del Mar's.
    Bolt d'Oro -- this is his race to lose. He has looked incredible in every single one of his races thus far and is primed to be the Eclipse winner in his division.

    Turf: (deep breath on this one too! haha)

    Bullard's Alley -- I feel crazy for including him, because I know Woodbine and Del Mar have totally different surfaces, but he sure did crush everyone in the Canadian International. Running with a lot of confidence.
    Highland Reel -- last year's winner, I don't see any reason he can't repeat. Has traveled and won about everywhere he's gone!
    Ulysses -- If anyone has the pedigree to run all day it's him. He's set up well to win here......Enable's not entered....
    Beach Patrol -- Probably the best American chance to take this race. Has looked great this well and GSP at Del Mar.
    Sadler's Joy -- I've got to include this one, as he proved pretty sneaky in the Sword Dancer. And he's got the pedigree for turf and stamina.

    Classic:

    Arrogate -- I know he's been inconsistent of late, but I'd be a complete fool to leave him off my ticket. Training well.
    Gun Runner -- So impressive this year. Can he get the distance? I hope so. Seems to be taking well to Del Mar.
    West Coast -- Great looking three year old. I'm gonna give him a chance against the older males. He's done well over many surfaces for a young runner and been quite versatile. Pedigree says is age should not be a hindrance for him.
    Collected -- He's beaten Arrogate at Del Mar. I think that alone is enough to include him, but the rest of his pedigree is a fairly impressive resume on it's own. He's got a decent shot here.

    Total Ticket Cost: $4320

    (Going to post now since I've got this all worked out in my mind now and will only get further confused if I think about it more. Of course picks subject to change with scratches prior to the start of the Filly and Mare Turf. Thanks again, Jae, for your generosity with the "budget" this week, and letting me post early. Everyone have a great weekend! I'll be partying in my jammies with the dogs, a big flat screen, and lots of junk food, and perhaps, an adult beverage! lol).
  • carolinarkansascarolinarkansas hot springs, arkansasMember
    FILLY AND MARE TURF
    #7 Dacita....Rosario, Brown, and Scat Daddy=good combo
    #9 Lady Eli...she is the best, hers to lose, Ortiz and Brown
    #12 Avenge...like this one, call it a hunch
    #15 Kitten's Roar...cant resist a KJ and this one has Johnny V

    SPRINT
    #2 Drefong...top J/T combo in BC, in top form
    #6 Mind Your Biscuits...Rosario just might get this one home
    #7 Takaful...has an Ortiz brother
    #8 Roy H...love MTR, using him based on his last race

    MILE
    #2 Heart to Heart..like this guy and Leparoux
    #5 World Approval...Velazquez and Casse both top notch
    #10 Ribchester....Buick may get this one home
    #12 Roly Poly....Moore and O'Brien

    JUVENILE....ugh...2yr olds
    #2 Solomini...Baffert, training well
    #3 Firenze Fire...Ortiz brother
    #5 Free Drop Billy...got a chance if he can reproduce last reace
    #11 Bolt d'Oro....his to lose...I think

    TURF
    #3 Highland Reel...Moore and O'Brien
    #13 Sadler's Joy...KJ as sire and Big D and BMS....love this pedigree
    #14 Oscar Performance...Ortiz brother...hopefully is back up to snuff

    CLASSIC
    #1 Arrogate...don't trust him but cant leave him off
    #5 Gun Runner...think he is the best of the bunch
    #8 West Coast...on the rise, just might get there

    best to all
  • Handicapping Contest Races for November 4th, 2017:

    G1 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (5:00 PM EST) - http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/DMR110417USA-EQB.html#RACE7
    G1 Breeders' Cup Sprint (5:37 PM EST) - http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/DMR110417USA-EQB.html#RACE8
    G1 Breeders' Cup Mile (6:19 PM EST) - http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/DMR110417USA-EQB.html#RACE9
    G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (6:58 PM EST) - http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/DMR110417USA-EQB.html#RACE10
    G1 Breeders' Cup Turf (7:37 PM EST) - http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/DMR110417USA-EQB.html#RACE11
    G1 Breeders' Cup Classic (8:35 PM EST) - http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/DMR110417USA-EQB.html#RACE12

    Theme: Breeders' Cup Pick 6 - $5,000 maximum ticket cost (https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling-calculator)
  • sarinnesarinne Member
    edited November 2017
    sarinne said:

    Filly and Mare Turf:

    Cambodia -- going to take a chance on her since she is loving the Del Mar turf this year and hoping that experience there might give her an edge.
    Dacita -- though she was disappointing in the Flower Bowl, she has an incredible resume, and is probably the one most likely to threaten Lady Eli, IMHO.
    Lady Eli -- the race is hers to lose. She has been impressive this year, and I see her going in strong and ready to retire on top after being the runner-up last year. She really has no peer in her division nationally.

    Sprint:

    Drefong -- powerful and impressive and speedy in his races going in. A champion last year, and this year I don't doubt he will be again.
    Mind Your Biscuits -- this guy deserves a place on my ticket because he always puts out a tremendous effort when he ships out to big races.
    Roy H -- huge performance in his last race and won with ease. Because of his form this year, I am choosing to include him.

    Mile: (I honestly have no clue how to bet this race lol)

    Midnight Storm -- MGSW on the Del Mar Turf, seems a consistent competitor.
    World Approval -- Such a versatile, well-traveled and accomplished runner. Big chance to win.
    Ribchester -- Impressive Euro runner, looks fabulous on paper. Here to win.
    Roly Poly -- Has beaten Ribchester! And l love her pedigree, have to include her.

    Juvenile:

    Free Drop Billy -- he looked great in the Breeders' Futurity. Pedigree says he's got the ability to beat the favorite.
    Good Magic -- I love the pedigree on this boy, bred to run all day, so I'm making room for him. Yes, he's a maiden, but second in the Champagne and the Belmont surface is very different than Del Mar's.
    Bolt d'Oro -- this is his race to lose. He has looked incredible in every single one of his races thus far and is primed to be the Eclipse winner in his division.

    Turf: (deep breath on this one too! haha)

    Bullard's Alley -- I feel crazy for including him, because I know Woodbine and Del Mar have totally different surfaces, but he sure did crush everyone in the Canadian International. Running with a lot of confidence.
    Highland Reel -- last year's winner, I don't see any reason he can't repeat. Has traveled and won about everywhere he's gone!
    Ulysses -- If anyone has the pedigree to run all day it's him. He's set up well to win here......Enable's not entered....
    Beach Patrol -- Probably the best American chance to take this race. Has looked great this well and GSP at Del Mar.
    Sadler's Joy -- I've got to include this one, as he proved pretty sneaky in the Sword Dancer. And he's got the pedigree for turf and stamina.

    Classic:

    Arrogate -- I know he's been inconsistent of late, but I'd be a complete fool to leave him off my ticket. Training well.
    Gun Runner -- So impressive this year. Can he get the distance? I hope so. Seems to be taking well to Del Mar.
    West Coast -- Great looking three year old. I'm gonna give him a chance against the older males. He's done well over many surfaces for a young runner and been quite versatile. Pedigree says is age should not be a hindrance for him.
    Collected -- He's beaten Arrogate at Del Mar. I think that alone is enough to include him, but the rest of his pedigree is a fairly impressive resume on it's own. He's got a decent shot here.

    Total Ticket Cost: $4320

    (Going to post now since I've got this all worked out in my mind now and will only get further confused if I think about it more. Of course picks subject to change with scratches prior to the start of the Filly and Mare Turf. Thanks again, Jae, for your generosity with the "budget" this week, and letting me post early. Everyone have a great weekend! I'll be partying in my jammies with the dogs, a big flat screen, and lots of junk food, and perhaps, an adult beverage! lol).

    With the scratch of Ulysses, I have to shuffle things around. Please remove him and add:

    Filly and Mare Turf

    Avenge -- She has familiarity with the Del Mar Turf and is coming in off a hard fought GI win. Can't ignore this War Front daughter any more, and I originally deleted her to keep my ticket price down to add Ulysses. So now that he's scratched, she's back within budget.

    Adjusted Ticket Cost: $4608
  • carolinarkansascarolinarkansas hot springs, arkansasMember

    FILLY AND MARE TURF
    #7 Dacita....Rosario, Brown, and Scat Daddy=good combo
    #9 Lady Eli...she is the best, hers to lose, Ortiz and Brown
    #12 Avenge...like this one, call it a hunch
    #15 Kitten's Roar...cant resist a KJ and this one has Johnny V

    SPRINT
    #2 Drefong...top J/T combo in BC, in top form
    #6 Mind Your Biscuits...Rosario just might get this one home
    #7 Takaful...has an Ortiz brother
    #8 Roy H...love MTR, using him based on his last race

    MILE
    #2 Heart to Heart..like this guy and Leparoux
    #5 World Approval...Velazquez and Casse both top notch
    #10 Ribchester....Buick may get this one home
    #12 Roly Poly....Moore and O'Brien

    JUVENILE....ugh...2yr olds
    #2 Solomini...Baffert, training well
    #3 Firenze Fire...Ortiz brother
    #5 Free Drop Billy...got a chance if he can reproduce last reace
    #11 Bolt d'Oro....his to lose...I think

    TURF
    #3 Highland Reel...Moore and O'Brien
    #13 Sadler's Joy...KJ as sire and Big D and BMS....love this pedigree
    #14 Oscar Performance...Ortiz brother...hopefully is back up to snuff

    CLASSIC
    #1 Arrogate...don't trust him but cant leave him off
    #5 Gun Runner...think he is the best of the bunch
    #8 West Coast...on the rise, just might get there

    best to all

    forgot to include price of ticket=$4608
  • No problem @carolinarkansas!

    I actually just found the DRF Past Performances for the entire Breeders' Cup card today at Del Mar. So if you're interested in using Beyer figures instead of Brisnet figures, you can find them here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2B2H334lK-qdmItSWUtc2hsaFU/view
  • G1 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
    #9 Lady El
    i - This is her final race and will be holding nothing back. Only one horse in this race has ever beaten her(by a head)and that is Queen's Trust in this race last year, and Queen's Trust has not won since. Loved Lady Eli since watching her take the overland route to win the Belmont Oaks on July 4, 2015. I couldn't be paid to pick against her in this race.

    G1 Breeders' Cup Sprint #2
    #2 Defrong
    - Other than his first race, Defrong has won every race in which he hasn't ditched his jockey. He is a top class sprinter.
    #8 Roy H - Roy H has run the highest Equibase speed figure in this field and is my pick to win the race in my WP wager with real money. He won the Santa Anita Sprint the last time out.
    #10 Imperial Hint - Imperial Hint has a five race winning streak and I like horses that are coming into a race(especially one of this magnitude) in form.

    G1 Breeders' Cup Mile
    #1 Midnight Storm
    - Midnight Storm has been running a lot on dirt this year, which I think has hurt his form. I expect him to run a huge race on the turf. I have liked him as he is a son of Pioneerof the Nile and he is partly owned by Little Red Feather(but not by the crowdsource fund of which I am a part).
    #5 World Approval - World Approval has a shot in this race but he did poorly on firm turf at Belmont in the Manhattan in June so I wonder how he will handle this even bigger event.
    #8 Suedois - I have a hard time getting a handle on European imports but I really like the form which Sudeois is carrying into this race. If I didn't have a sentimental favorite in this race with Midnight Storm, then I would have a live bet on Sudeois to win this race.
    #13 Blackjackcat - Blackjackcat comes into this race in excellent form with a four race winning streak, but is moving way up in class. I am including him just in case he finds enough to rise to the occasion.

    G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile
    #11 Bolt d'Oro
    - Bolt d'Oro is the class of this field, winning all three starts in style with greatly increasing Equibase speed figures each time. Unless U S Navy Flag can pull off an "Arazi"(watch the 1991 edition of this race on YouTube) I have no doubt Bolt d'Oro will win this race. Also, I am ready for the sport to get the attention that a Triple Crown winner brings, so here's hoping he is the REAL deal as a three-year-old.

    G1 Breeders' Cup Turf
    #3 Highland Reel
    - Highland Reel won this race gate to wire last year but has not done well in his last two races, including losing to Ulysses(who would have been my live bet if he hadn't been scratched).
    #12 Beach Patrol - Beach Patrol is coming into this race in fine form, winning his last two, including the Joe Hirsch Turf at Belmont at 12 furlongs. With Ulysses out, he is my live bet now.

    G1 Breeders' Cup Classic
    #1 Arrogate
    - Arrogate has been off form at Del Mar in his last two races but still ran his second highest Equibase speed figure in losing the Pacific Classic to Collected. This is his swan song so he will be emptying the tank for sure down the stretch. If he can get to the lead out of the 1 hole he will be pretty tough to beat.
    #5 Gun Runner - Gun Runner has been in stunning form since losing to Arrogate(in a performance that will go down in racing annals) at Dubai in March. He is in a better position to get to the lead than Arrogate and if he does, I think he wins this race. He is my live bet.
    #8 West Coast - West Coast has been doing great this year but he is stepping way up in class against his elders. I am including him since he does have a puncher's chance if he can raise his game sufficiently.
    #11 Collect - Collected defeated Arrogate in the Pacific Classic and he has the best chance to rate in third or fourth position and close on the leaders. If he run as well as he did in the Pacific Classic, then he definitely has a chance to pull this off.

    Total Ticket - 1x3x4x1x2x4 x $2 = $192

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