2015 Kentucky Derby

1515254565771

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  • http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/Kentucky_Derby_2015_Birth_order_and_the_Kentucky_Derby_123#

    Fascinating article on birth order statistics in the Kentucky Derby. Half of the Kentucky Derby winners over the last 20 years have been out of mares that were either maiden broodmares or had otherwise been barren the previous year. There was also a study done back in the 90s that found a mare's first 5 foals have a better probability of success on the racetrack, although that may just be because they're often bred to better stallions early on.
    Secretariat is one, very big exception to that rule =) But it generally does apply. Let us hope Monty breaks that rule.
  • Yeah the article mentioned that birth order means nothing if the dam was a blue hen, which I believe Somethingroyal was.
  • Yeah the article mentioned that birth order means nothing if the dam was a blue hen, which I believe Somethingroyal was.
    Indeed, Secretariat had two full sisters born in 1965 and 1969 respectively. The first one: Syrian Sea, earned $178,245... Which was quite a bit back then. Then there was Sir Gaylord, who was her first colt and was a good racer and renowned producer. So she foaled good horses many times. Of course, she'll always be remembered for being the dam of Secretariat, as well as being the oldest mare to ever foal a Triple Crown winner.
  • Very interesting article, jaefeathered. Thanks for posting it! Someone commented on it asking if the mare's age had anything to do with having successful foals. Now I want to go look up how old the dams of the last 20 KD winners were.
  • Horselover24Horselover24 Member
    edited April 2015
    I had some time on my hands, so I looked up the ages of the dams (at the time of foaling) of the top three runners in the last 20 years of the Kentucky Derby.


    Dams of Winners:
    Age 5-10: 60%
    Age 11-15: 35%
    Age 16+: 5%

    Youngest: 5 Years Old
    Love the Chase (Dam of California Chrome, 2014 winner)
    *Mining My Own (Dam of Mine That Bird, 2009 winner)
    Line of Thunder (Dam of Thunder Gulch, 1995 winner)

    *Mining My Own is also the dam of 2012 third place finisher, Dullahan. MMO was 8 when Dullahan was born.

    Oldest: 16 Years Old
    Bali Babe (Dam of Charismatic, 1999 winner)


    Dams of 2nd Place Finishers:
    Age 5-10: 55%
    Age 11-15: 30%
    Age 16+: 15%

    Youngest: 5 Years Old
    Untouched Talent (Dam of Bodemeister, 2012 runner-up)
    Mrs. Greeley (Dam of Closing Argument, 2005 runner-up)

    Oldest: 23 Years Old
    Anne Campbell (Dam of Menifee, 1999 runner-up)


    Dams of 3rd Place Finishers:
    Age 5-10: 70%
    Age 11-15: 15%
    Age 16+: 15%

    Youngest: 5 Years Old
    Misconduct (Dam of Impeachment, 2000 show)

    Oldest: 16 and 17 Years Old
    Fall Aspen (Dam of Timber Country, 1995 show. Dam of Prince of Thieves, 1996 show)


    Overall Age of Dams of the Top 3 Finishers:
    Age 5-10: 61.7%
    Age 11-15: 26.7%
    Age 16+: 11.7%
  • Paniolo_GalPaniolo_Gal Member
    edited April 2015
    Very interesting article, jaefeathered. Thanks for posting it! Someone commented on it asking if the mare's age had anything to do with having successful foals. Now I want to go look up how old the dams of the last 20 KD winners were.
    There's several interesting dams that I've been gathering up for quite awhile for past triple crown series race winners (KD, Preakness & Belmont as well as in Europe's Triple Crown series) and hope to make a collection of these wonderful dams of the past that haven't yet been featured...planning for the month of May in the thread: Golden Girls.

    Rather than just showing current 21th century racers...it's also wonderful to travel back in time to read up on these historic ladies and their champion offspring. :oD

  • Everybody's trying to find their winner, so I thought these could help with your handicapping process.

    http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/04/15/a-final-glance-at-the-pedigree-trends-of-past-kentucky-derby-winners/
  • KMMKMM Member
    And Secretariat was one of his dam's last foals. And Sea the Stars was one of the last for UrbanSea, although most of her sons and daughters were exceptional. I know I am picking outliers. There is always an exception to statistical averages.
  • Horselover24Horselover24 Member
    edited April 2015
    I looked up the age of this year's Kentucky Derby contenders' dams.

    Age of Dam
    (at time of foaling)..........KD Contender..........Rank on Leader Board..........KD Points
    4...............................................El Kabeir...............................#8.......................................95
    5...............................................Keen Ice...............................#22......................................22
    6........................................American Pharoah.....................#4.....................................160
    6...............................................Stanford...............................#17.....................................40
    6...........................................Bold Conquest........................#24......................................17
    7...............................................Far Right...............................#10.....................................62
    7............................................Itsaknockout...........................#11.....................................60
    7..............................................War Story..............................#14.....................................44
    7..............................................Metaboss..............................#26.....................................10
    8...............................................Upstart..................................#9......................................76
    8............................................Frammento.............................#23.....................................20
    9..........................................Cross the Line..........................#30........................................4
    9....................................Another Lemon Drop....................#31.......................................1
    10.....................................Ocho Ocho Ocho........................#19.....................................30
    10................................................Bolo...................................#21.....................................30
    10......................................Madefromlucky..........................#21.....................................30
    10......................................Toasting Master.........................#28.....................................10
    10.....................................Task Force Glory.........................#29.....................................10
    11...........................................Materiality..............................#7.......................................11
    11......................................One Lucky Dane.........................#16.....................................40
    12...........................................Dortmund...............................#2....................................170
    12.........................................Carpe Diem...............................#3....................................164
    12.............................................Frosted..................................#5....................................113
    12........................................Danzig Moon............................#13.....................................45
    13....................................International Star.........................#1.....................................171
    13..........................................Firing Line...............................#12.....................................58
    13.............................................Mr. Z.....................................#18.....................................34
    13...........................................Firespike................................#13......................................10
    14.........................................Mubtaahij.................................#6.....................................100
    14........................................Tencendur...............................#15......................................41
    14...................................The Truth Or Else.........................#25......................................11

    Interestingly, the past 20 years of the Kentucky Derby have favored horses with younger dams. But of the top 10 contenders this year (points wise), only American Pharoah, El Kabeir, Upstart, and Far Right have dams younger than 10. The 6 others have dams in the 11-15 range. Top contenders like Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Frosted, International Star, and Mubtaahij have dams ranging from 12 to 14 years old. None of this year's contenders have dams over 14 years old.
  • KMMKMM Member
    Wow! Impressive! You do your research! Kmm
  • Thank you, KMM! :)
  • This just may be the year when the younger dam doesn't hold up. If it does hold up, then that gives American Pharoah the edge over Dortmund and Carpe Diem but it also gives Upstart a fighting chance if he's fit.
  • KMMKMM Member
    I am voting for Carpet Diem. Really like the name( Seize the Day in Latin) and for sentimental reasons, my girl's broodmare sire. From news articles, seems he might have some gate and paddock issues related to excitement and stimulation. Hope they stuff his ears like JS did with Zto tone down KC hubbub and noise. Kmm
  • This just may be the year when the younger dam doesn't hold up. If it does hold up, then that gives American Pharoah the edge over Dortmund and Carpe Diem but it also gives Upstart a fighting chance if he's fit.
    I was thinking the same thing. This year, most (not all) of the horses with younger dams are not key contenders. And of course there are so many variables surrounding a horse's success that their dam's age probably isn't a major factor, but it is interesting to look at different types of statistics. The fact that younger dams have produced more KD winners (in the past 20 years) supports the idea in the article that the first 5 foals a mare has will likely be the most successful.
  • we should write a superfecta.
  • Just a quick question(s)... I'm a Horseracing fan only, so I don't gamble but.... I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the terms. "Superfecta"? "Trifecta"? "Late pick 4"? These are just some of the terms of which I have no concept of their meaning. Can someone enlighten me?
  • Just a quick question(s)... I'm a Horseracing fan only, so I don't gamble but.... I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the terms. "Superfecta"? "Trifecta"? "Late pick 4"? These are just some of the terms of which I have no concept of their meaning. Can someone enlighten me?
    You are so funny...lol..never know if your on the level and kicking a rib...or asking a serious question.
  • I don't think she was just kidding. :) And even if she was, I don't gamble myself, and would be very interested to learn from an expert's explanation. If anyone would care to enlighten both of us?
  • Just a quick question(s)... I'm a Horseracing fan only, so I don't gamble but.... I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the terms. "Superfecta"? "Trifecta"? "Late pick 4"? These are just some of the terms of which I have no concept of their meaning. Can someone enlighten me?

    You are so funny...lol..never know if your on the level and kicking a rib...or asking a serious question.
    How fantastically rude.

    RR12, this is a handy little guide: http://horseracing.about.com/od/helpfornewfans/a/aaquickbets.htm
  • Thanks, EliRose! That was a perfect guide. I love how helpful people on this site are. :)
  • Thanks for the great guide, EliRose.
  • Elirose, thanks for posting the guide. We should show how big those derby supers can get. I think that 850,000.is the biggest.
    The post to rr12 was not intended to be anything but tongue in cheek.
  • Just a quick question(s)... I'm a Horseracing fan only, so I don't gamble but.... I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the terms. "Superfecta"? "Trifecta"? "Late pick 4"? These are just some of the terms of which I have no concept of their meaning. Can someone enlighten me?

    You are so funny...lol..never know if your on the level and kicking a rib...or asking a serious question.


    How fantastically rude.

    RR12, this is a handy little guide: http://horseracing.about.com/od/helpfornewfans/a/aaquickbets.htm
    Thanks @EliRose, that was really helpful =D Maybe now I won't be so jumbled when they speak "gamble gibberish".
  • KetaKeta Member
    CARPE DIEM – NEW OFFICIAL WEB SITE
    horseracinghl on Thursday April 16 2015
    Stonestreet & WinStar Farm announce the launch of an official website
    for Derby contender Carpe Diem,
    http://www.seizethederby.com/
  • I've heard there's also going to be an official website for Materiality as well, but it's not up yet as far as I know.
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